Tropical Depression #12 (Katia) – Discussion #1

29 August 2011 David Reimer 0 Comments

Tropical Depression #12 Infrared Image - 8/29/2011 1:45 PM CDT

As expected, Hurricane Irene ended up creating significant disruptions across the Northeastern United States. The main impacts came in the form of falling trees, power outages, and record flooding. Irene has now lost all tropical characteristics and is now more reminisnt of a nor’easter as it continues to impact Canada. Our focus is now on another system that has formed out in the Eastern Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center designated this system as a Tropical Depression earlier this morning. Currently, the system is located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Infrared imgry shows a large area of disorganized convection.

Convection displaced west of the center of Tropical Depression #12

As the graphic above shows, the center of Tropical Depression #12 is devoid of convection. Most of TD12′s convection is currently located on the western sides of the system as some easterly shear impacts the system. This isn’t unusual for new, weak tropical systems. Convection should begin to fire over the center of TD12 later tonight and once that occurs some strengthening should begin and the system should be upgraded to Tropical Storm Kalia.

8/29/2011 18Z Intensity Models

In terms of intensity, Katia is expected to become a significant and powerful hurricane. Because of the open, warm waters and favorable atmospheric conditions, Katia should be able to attain at least Category 3 status, if not higher. This storm will be one of the ‘big ones’ of 2011, but since we don’t even have a Tropical Storm yet, we’ll leave the specifics for another time.

Tropical Depression #12 - 8/29/2011 18Z Tracks

In terms of the eventual track of Katia, it should continue on a general northwest motion for the next several days. From there, there are a few possible scenarios. The first is that a weakness in the ridge across the United States allows Katia to turn in a westward direction and eventually threaten Florida and the eastern GOM. That seems rather unlikely at this point in time. The other two scenarios are the same that Irene faced. The ridge could deflect Katia, turn her northeast and keep Katia from impacting any land areas, or Katia may approach the Eastern US Coastline in the same fashion as Irene. We’re still way too far out to say definitively what will happen, but it definietly bears watching. Should Katia approach the US, the threat is still 10 to 14 days down the road. We’ll definitely keep posting updates on this storm. Stay tuned!

Future Hurricane Emily?

30 July 2011 Connor McCrorey 1 Comment

While what was once Tropical Storm Don disintegrates over south Texas, we’re turning our eyes east! Invest 91L is currently trudging west in the central Atlantic, and is slowly looking less and less like a tropical wave and more and more like a tropical storm. Models are indicating that conditions will remain favorable for development of 91L for at least several more days. Given its current level of organization, this should be plenty of time for us to at least get a depression out of it! The National Hurricane Center has given 91L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, which is considered a high chance.

Unlike Don, which managed to stay fairly south and west, this system looks like it will probably curve back to the north and east a bit earlier. It is possible that it will stay far enough south to make it under the ridge that kept Don moving west, but it appears more likely that future-Emily will encounter a weakness in the Atlantic ridging near the Leeward Islands and will move recurve away from the USA. While this is good news in that it prevents the damage a hurricane can do from occurring, it does mean that people in drought-ravaged areas like Texas and Georgia will have to do without for a little while longer. No matter what path it takes, this system will be in conditions that favor intensification into a hurricane for a little while now, and model guidance agrees that this is a distinct possibility.

We will be back later today with much more information regarding Invest 91L and its potential impacts, so don’t go anywhere!

Tropical Storm Don – 1:30 PM Update

29 July 2011 David Reimer 0 Comments

This image is showing base reflectivity out of the Brownsville, TX NEXRAD radar. An area of very heavy thunderstorms was located about 40 miles east of South Padre Island, moving slow progress to the west. This area of convection is producing an unusually significant amount of lightning for a storm with tropical origins. This area of convection likely has winds over 35 MPH. It should begin to impact the Texas coast by 4 PM.

Tropical Storm Don continues to move west, northwest with 50 MPH winds. No significant change in strength is anticipated before landfall later this evening. Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening across deep South Texas.

Tropical Storm Don – Discussion #4

29 July 2011 David Reimer 0 Comments

Here’s the new video discussion on Tropical Storm Don!

Tropical Storm Don – Discussion #3

28 July 2011 David Reimer 3 Comments

Good morning,

We’re going to try something new this morning and see how everybody likes it. For the first time, we’re doing a video briefing. These will not completely replace written discussions, but in this case since it’s 6 AM, we’ll stick it out with the video discussion. Feedback and suggestions are appreciated!