



As expected, Invest 90L continued to organize this morning and when the Hurricane Hunters arrived they found a developed low level circulation and enough data to upgrade Invest 90L to Tropical Storm Don, the fourth atlantic tropical system this year. Hurricane Hunters found winds of 40 MPH when they were in the system earlier this afternoon. Since that time, the convection of Tropical Storm Don has degraded. This may be due to the proximity of the system to the Yucatan Peninsula and the late afternoon hours, in which convection in weak systems can falter. The majority of convection right now is located over the Yucatan Peninsula and is being generated by the heat of the afternoon. There is really very little in the way of convection associated with the center of Tropical Storm Don at this point. While this is indicative of a poorly organized tropical system, convection normally increases during the overnight hours. We’ll be monitoring this trend tonight to see if Don fires off more convection. If it does not, then it is possible that Don could weaken back to a Tropical Depression. We’ll continue to watch for that possibility tonight, otherwise lets get down to the latest information on Don.
The only weather story we’ve had in Texas the past few weeks have revolved around the ongoing heat wave and drought. As I’ve been saying for a while now, the only hope we have of any widespread rainfall this summer will be coming from tropical systems. We now have one of those. Invest 90L, a disturbed area of weather in the northeast Caribbean, has been around for a few days now. This disturbance originated east of the Lesser Antilles and has moved through the Caribbean, where strong wind shear prevent any development. Wind shear has lessened over the area. While wind shear is still present, it’s now weak enough that Invest 90L does have the potential for some slow development over the next 24 hours.
A very interesting situation is setting up with the introduction of Invest 95L. A research aircraft found that flew into the disturbance this afternoon found the area of disturbed weather had become better organized. At this point no low level circulation is evident, which is a requirement for a system to be declared a ‘cyclone’ by the hurricane center.
We’re now in the peak period for the Atlantic Hurricane Season and the map above sure shows it. Right now there are three areas of enhanced tropical activity. The first obvious area is Hurricane Igor which is approaching Category 5 intensity this evening and has the potential to reach it overnight. The second area is on the east side of the graphic above 10N and east of 30W. That is Tropical Storm Julia and should remain a “fish storm.” The third area is in the eastern Caribbean and is the area I currently have my eye on.