Posts Tagged ‘Large Hail’

Tornadoes possible on Sunday in Arkansas; Chase Likely!

Published on Saturday, 10 March 2012 12:55

David Reimer

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This graphic comes from the Storm Prediction Center and shows the probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any given point on Sunday. The standard “slight” risk of severe weather includes all areas within the 15% zone (which means a 15% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a point). With their latest outlook, SPC has introduced an enhanced severe weather probabilities in Arkansas. This zone is identified by the red outline, meaning there is a 30% chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of any given point.

The standard severe weather risk currently includes Northeast Texas with the highest severe weather probabilities in Arkansas. Unlike the severe weather risk a few days ago that was fairly low because of a lack of wind shear, tomorrow’s setup has excellent wind-shear. The primary question right now is how much instability will be in place and where will amounts be the highest. As of now, tomorrow does have the potential to be an active severe weather day. There will be some severe weather risk in Northeast Texas, but the most significant/widespread severe weather will likely be just east of the state line in Arkansas/Louisiana.

Severe Weather Threats on Sunday: Tornadoes, Large Hail, Damaging Winds

Severe Weather Locations: Standard “slight” risk of severe weather in Northeast Texas, Elevated Risk in Arkansas

Severe Weather Timing: 3 PM – 10 PM (Generally a 2 PM – 6 PM timeframe for Northeast Texas)

Chase Status: Chase likely on Sunday – Live Video will be available 

Confidence Level: Moderate – Questions remain on how much instability and where those highest amounts will be located.

We’ll have a full forecast discussion later this afternoon. Residents in Northeast Texas, Arkansas, and Northwest Louisiana should have a source to receive weather warnings on Sunday.