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Posts Tagged ‘Large Hail’

Isolated Severe Storms possible today in Big Bend/Hill Country

03 May 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

This graphic shows the chance of you experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of any given point today into tonight. The brown colors mean there is a relatively low chance of 5 percent and the yellow colors indicate what we refer to as the standard risk of severe weather, or a 15 percent chance. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the eastern portions of the Big Bend Country along with the western portions of the Hill Country in the standard risk of severe weather with the potential of isolated severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into the early evening hours.

This graphic shows the expected instability values at 7 PM this evening across Texas. The overall environment is expected to become very unstable along and east of the dryline this afternoon as Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values excess 4,o00 joules per kilogram (J/Kg) in some locations. In non-nerdy terms, that’s very unstable! However, a strong cap will greatly limit the overall thunderstorm chances today. Only a few thunderstorms are expected in Texas today, but any thunderstorm that develops will likely become severe with large hail the primary threat. The storms should be confined to an area within 50 to 75 miles of the dryline, so they should remain well west of Interstate 35 as the cap will smash any storms that try to approach.

Severe Weather Risk extended into West Texas

29 April 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

Latest short term model guidance suggests that storms may be able to form a bit further south then expected earlier this morning, so the Storm Prediction Center has added more of West and Northwest Texas to the standard risk of severe weather. Within the orange shaded zone, folks have a 15 percent chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of any given point, such as a house. The brown shaded zone means there is a 5 percent chance and is a low severe weather risk. See our morning update for complete details. 

SPC Severe Weather Outlook for April 26

25 April 2012 David Reimer 3 Comments

This graphic shows the probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any given point (such as a house) on Thursday, April 26. A standard risk is defined as the yellow shaded zone with an elevated risk of severe weather within the red shaded zone. The black hatched zone means there is a chance of very large hail. I’ll be chasing tomorrow and will have live video up and running! I’ll also have a detailed discussion posted later this evening.

This is the Storm Prediction Center’s discussion that accompanies this outlook. Some of this discussion is pretty technical, so I’ve highlighted some of the text so the non-weather folks can understand it.

 





NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1227 PM CDT WED APR 25 2012

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

   WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA/NRN BAJA COAST...CENTERED NEAR
   29N/127W...WILL EJECT INLAND EARLY IN THE DAY2 PERIOD BEFORE LIFTING
   NEWD INTO CO/NM BY 27/00Z.  THIS FEATURE WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
   HIGH PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS
   ACROSS THE ROCKIES LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL UNDOUBTEDLY RESPOND AND
   BECOME DECIDEDLY SELY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  WHILE THE LATEST
   SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED RECENTLY REGARDING THE AGGRESSIVE
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN...IT APPEARS A LEGITIMATE MOISTURE
   SURGE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WARM SECTOR OVER THE NEXT
   24-48HR AND 60-65 SFC DEW POINTS MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN
   TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION BY PEAK HEATING.  TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
   WILL FAVOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THOUGH STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
   SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE UPSLOPE REGION FROM
   THE TX PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME SERN CO.  FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING AROUND 21-22Z (4 PM - 5 PM CDT).
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE COULD EASILY EXCEED 2000 J/KG
   WITHIN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL STRONGLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.
   FAVORABLY SHEARED AND BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO LENDS CREDENCE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. HAVE INCREASED THE SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL.  LATE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
   ERN CO WITHIN STRONGER ZONE OF FORCED ASCENT.  THIS ACTIVITY COULD
   EASILY SPREAD INTO SWRN NEB/NWRN KS BY MIDNIGHT AS LLJ INCREASES
   DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.




 

										
										
										
					
				

			

			
						
			
								
				
		
					


										
												
															
								

									

										

											

												12 PM Severe Weather Update											

										

									

								

								
														
						
						

						
						
						
						
						

							

								


									
									
										 07 April 2012

									
									
									
									
									
									
									
										David Reimer

									
									
									
									
										
											0 Comments

										
									
									
								

							

							

						


						
											
					


											
					
											
						
				
										
						


This graphic shows the chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location this afternoon and early this evening. The orange line you see is the zone where the storm prediction center has placed a standard risk of severe weather, meaning there is a 15 percent chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any given location within that zone. The risk extends all the way from Southwest Texas northeastward into western sections of North Texas and Southern Oklahoma. Midland, San Angelo, Abiliene, Vernon, Wichita Falls, Decatur, Denton, Sherman, and Bonham are just a few cities included in this risk. The timeframe will be from 4 PM to 10 PM.


Today’s severe weather threat will be in the form of large hail (quarters to half dollar size) and downburst winds around 60 MPH in the strongest storms. In addition, localized flooding could become an issue later tonight when storms are expected to become widespread. The severe weather threat (hail and wind threats) are expected to remain more isolated and a widespread severe weather issue is not expected. Tornadoes are not expected today.

										
										
										
					
				

			

			
						
			
								
				
		
					


										
												
															
								

									

										

											

												Today’s Severe Weather Risk											

										

									

								

								
														
						
						

						
						
						
						
						

							

								


									
									
										 04 April 2012

									
									
									
									
									
									
									
										David Reimer

									
									
									
									
										
											0 Comments

										
									
									
								

							

							

						


						
											
					


											
					
											
						
				
										
						


First time I’ve ever gotten to write a blog post from the air. Looks like I’ve just started decent into the Philidelphia area. Anyway, the storm prediction center has issued their standard risk of severe weather for the afternoon and early evening hours for much of coastal Texas. The risk generally includes areas within 75 miles of the coastline. The severe weather threats will be coin-size hail (nickels, quarters, half dollars) and damaging downburst winds. The tornado threat is non-zero and we certainly don’t anticipate anything like we saw yesterday in North Texas. We’ll continue to post damage survey results on our Facebook and Twitter pages from Tuesday’s outbreak.

										
										
										
					
				

			

			
						
			
														
								
			

				

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