Tag Archives: LOW

2:45 AM Situation Update

Widespread rain is moving north/northeast across West-Central Texas eastward into the Hill Country and North Texas. A few lightning strikes are noted in the heaviest cells, but all this is occurring in the cold air north of the cold front. No severe weather is expected. In the warm sector where temperatures remain in the low 70s across East Texas thunderstorms have yet to develop as a cap keeps a lid on things. We’re still seeing some indications that a few severe storms may pop up later this morning so we’ll keep an eye on it. The Storm Prediction Center just issued a discussion as I was writing this indicating that they are likely going to be issuing a Tornado Watch for parts of East Texas within the next 2 to 3 hours.

12-21-2013 3-23-54 AM

The reason we have not had thunderstorms develop yet is because the main upper level forcing responsible for helping thunderstorms break the cap has not yet arrived in the region. This upper level disturbance is currently allowing for the widespread rain across West-Central Texas. Temperatures out there are far too cool to support severe weather, but that won’t be the case when the forcing gets into the warm sector ahead of the cold front. We’ve already seen a few thunderstorms exhibiting mid-level rotation this morning across Northwest Texas. When the stronger forcing arrives in a few hours I believe the cap will weaken and we’ll end up getting an increase in both thunderstorm coverage and intensity. The strongest storms will try to become supercells. If a storm can become superceulluar it will likely produce damaging winds and will need to be watched closely for rotation. These storms will be moving northeast in a hurry once they develop. While we do have some risk of tornadoes in East Texas this morning, the higher threat of a outbreak will be in Arkansas and Louisiana. We’ll be here all morning providing updates as needed.

mcd2093

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED…PARTS OF E AND NE TX…SWRN TO CENTRAL/NERN
AR…AND FAR SERN MO

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 210831Z – 211100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…60 PERCENT

SUMMARY…TORNADO WATCHES MAY BECOME NECESSARY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT/PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF E AND NE TX INTO
SWRN…CENTRAL TO NERN AR AND FAR SERN MO. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME…DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR PERSISTENT/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS /SOME ROTATING/.
IF STORMS CAN BECOME ROOTED AT THE SURFACE…THEN THE RISK FOR A
TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD GREATLY INCREASE.

Flash Flood Warning: Howard County till 6 PM

A Flash Flood Warning is in effect for Howard County in West Texas until 6 PM. This includes all towns in the county, including Big Spring. An area of heavy rain is moving northeast into the county. This has already caused flooding in Odessa and Midland. Interstate 20 is included in this warning and heavy rain will make driving conditions difficult. Be mindful and be safe!

10-13-2013 3-15-47 PM

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
304 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
HOWARD COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS…

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 251 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
COUNTY AT AROUND 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SAND
SPRINGS…FAIRVIEW IN MITCHELL COUNTY…VINCENT…VEALMOOR…
LUTHER…KNOTT…FAIRVIEW AND COAHOMA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS… STREETS AND UNDERPASSES…LOW
WATER CROSSINGS… AND LOW LYING FARMLAND IS LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS.

FOR ROAD CONDITIONS IN TEXAS…PLEASE CALL THE TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF
TRANSPORTATION AT 1 800 452 9292…OR VISIT

HTTP://WWW.DOT.STATE.TX.US.

Flash Flood Warning: Gaines County till 5:45 PM

A Flash Flood Warning is in effect for Gaines County in West Texas until 5:45 PM. Law Enforcement is reporting flash flooding along Highway 180 about 1 mile east of Seminole. Additional heavy rain is moving into the county and flooding is likely to continue. Seminole, Seagraves, and Loop are included in this warning.

10-13-2013 2-56-54 PM

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
253 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
GAINES COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS…

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 245 PM CDT…LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH
FLOODING ALONG HIGHWAY 180…1 MILE EAST OF SEMINOLE. RADAR
INDICATES THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY
BEEN REPORTED TO BE FLOODED.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GAINES
COUNTY PARK…CEDAR LAKE…SEMINOLE…SEAGRAVES…PAYNES CORNER…
LOOP AND ASHMORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS… STREETS AND UNDERPASSES…LOW
WATER CROSSINGS… AND LOW LYING FARMLAND IS LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS.

First big Cold Front of the Season!

For those of you sick of the heat…that would include me…we’ve got some GREAT news for ya!  Our first major cold front of the season is predicted to arrive next weekend!  The long and mid-range forecast models have all been very consistent in this mid-September weather pattern change, so we are confident as well that this is not just a terrible algorithmic joke.

The graphic below indicates potential LOW temps for Texas at 7am next Sunday morning (Sept. 9th).  The legend at the bottom of the graphic will provide the color -based temperature ranges for you.

This next graphic indicates the potential HIGH temps for next Sunday at 7pm.  Again the legend at the bottom of the graphic will provide the estimated temps for each region.

In addition to the cold front which is currently expected to move south through Texas next Friday/early Saturday, there will be a chance of storms arriving in advance of the front which will certainly be a welcome and refreshing drink for our lawns and gardens!

Stay tuned!  We’ll bring you more updates with better timing of the front and better precipitation estimates and as it gets closer!

~Jenny

 

 

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