Widespread rain is moving north/northeast across West-Central Texas eastward into the Hill Country and North Texas. A few lightning strikes are noted in the heaviest cells, but all this is occurring in the cold air north of the cold front. No severe weather is expected. In the warm sector where temperatures remain in the low 70s across East Texas thunderstorms have yet to develop as a cap keeps a lid on things. We’re still seeing some indications that a few severe storms may pop up later this morning so we’ll keep an eye on it. The Storm Prediction Center just issued a discussion as I was writing this indicating that they are likely going to be issuing a Tornado Watch for parts of East Texas within the next 2 to 3 hours.
The reason we have not had thunderstorms develop yet is because the main upper level forcing responsible for helping thunderstorms break the cap has not yet arrived in the region. This upper level disturbance is currently allowing for the widespread rain across West-Central Texas. Temperatures out there are far too cool to support severe weather, but that won’t be the case when the forcing gets into the warm sector ahead of the cold front. We’ve already seen a few thunderstorms exhibiting mid-level rotation this morning across Northwest Texas. When the stronger forcing arrives in a few hours I believe the cap will weaken and we’ll end up getting an increase in both thunderstorm coverage and intensity. The strongest storms will try to become supercells. If a storm can become superceulluar it will likely produce damaging winds and will need to be watched closely for rotation. These storms will be moving northeast in a hurry once they develop. While we do have some risk of tornadoes in East Texas this morning, the higher threat of a outbreak will be in Arkansas and Louisiana. We’ll be here all morning providing updates as needed.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
AREAS AFFECTED…PARTS OF E AND NE TX…SWRN TO CENTRAL/NERN
AR…AND FAR SERN MO
CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 210831Z – 211100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…60 PERCENT
SUMMARY…TORNADO WATCHES MAY BECOME NECESSARY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT/PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF E AND NE TX INTO
SWRN…CENTRAL TO NERN AR AND FAR SERN MO. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME…DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR PERSISTENT/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS /SOME ROTATING/.
IF STORMS CAN BECOME ROOTED AT THE SURFACE…THEN THE RISK FOR A
TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD GREATLY INCREASE.