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Posts Tagged ‘Mississippi’

New Severe Weather Outlook

08 March 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

The Storm Prediction Center has released their new severe weather outlook for Thursday. Generally, nothing has changed from the graphic I posted yesterday afternoon. The standard “slight” risk of severe weather includes much of Central and Northeast Texas, along with Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. The severe weather threat looks to be highest (I’m using that in a relative term) as a cold front pushes southeastward this afternoon into the evening hours. A nearly solid line of thunderstorms will develop along the cold front. Large hail and damaging outflow winds are the primary severe weather threats. The tornado threat is non-zero (very low).

Here is the discussion from the Storm Prediction Center. This does contain some nerdy weather terms.

..CNTRL TEXAS EAST NORTHEAST THRU THE N CNTRL GULF STATES  
  
CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z THIS  
MORNING...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING  
FRONT...ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OZARK  
PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. DURING THE DAY...  
THOUGH...MODELS SUGGEST THAT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION BENEATH BROADLY  
DIFLUENT...AND INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT...UPPER FLOW WILL WEAKEN  
INHIBITION TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHERE INSOLATION MAY  
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO MODERATE MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.  
COUPLED WITH MODEST...BUT FAIRLY STRONGLY SHEARED...SOUTHWESTERLY  
DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...THIS MAY PROVE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT  
OF A FEW ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.  
 THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS APPEAR TO BE THE RISK FOR LOCALLY  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL  
GENERALLY CONFINED TO A STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX.  

The event is just beginning in MS/AL/GA…

02 March 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

Composite Reflectivity (6:36 PM CST)

This has already been a historic tornado outbreak with numerous significant tornadoes hitting small towns all across the Ohio Valley. However, the event is really just beginning to ramp up across Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia. The above graphic shows the radar image at 6:36 PM CST/7:36 PM EST. Notice that all the storms are by themselves and not in a squall line. This means the tornado potential remains quite elevated along with the destructive hail and damaging straight-line wind potential. Once these storms begin to congeal into a line of thunderstorms, the straight-line wind potential will increase and the tornado potential will begin to decrease, but not completely.


Rare HIGH RISK of Severe Weather Issued

02 March 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

1300Z - Friday's Severe Weather Outlook

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded a portion of their enhanced moderate risk to an extremely significant, rare HIGH RISK. These high risks are only issued one or two times a year and mean there is a very high confidence that there is the potential for very significant, deadly, severe weather. Don’t think just because you’re not in the high risk that you’re not in danger. The significant risk of severe weather extends all the way south into Mississippi and Alabama, northward into the Ohio Valley. Surrounding that significant risk, we have the standard “slight” risk of severe weather. That extends all the way west towards Arkansas/Louisiana, northeastward into the Great Lakes. Severe weather coverage will be higher in the moderate/high risk zones, but severe weather is possible in the standard risk zones as well.

Here’s a zoomed in shot of the high risk zone, just to give a little more detail on the specific major cities at risk. As you can see, Nashville and Louisville are just some of the cities in this rare, extremely dangerous HIGH RISK.

Chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles

Here’s a little bit more specific information. This graphic shows the probability of experiencing a tornado within 25 miles of your location today. The red line is where the high risk zone has been issued, and means there is nearly a 1 in 3 chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of downtown Nashville and Louisville. Obviously the 15% risk (orange line) is also very significant. Today still appears ready to be a major tornado outbreak. It’s going to be very busy and we’ll do our best to keep you informed.


Major Severe Weather Threat in Ohio Valley/Dixie Alley on Friday

01 March 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

Let me start off by saying there is no severe weather risk for Texas on Friday. This event will occur east of our state. Saying that, tomorrow looks like it could end up being a very dangerous day across the Ohio Valley into Dixie Alley. Unlike this graphic this morning, this image shows the “general” risk areas. A slight risk is your standard risk of severe weather with a moderate risk meaning a significant threat of severe weather. A High Risk is quite rare and signifies a major severe weather outbreak. At this time, the “Moderate” risk extends from Northeast Mississippi/North Alabama northward through Tennessee and Kentucky, and north into Indiana and Ohio. That significant risk is surrounded by the standard “slight” risk which extends from Louisiana north to the Great Lakes. This moderate risk signifies a nearly one in two chance of seeing severe weather within 25 miles of any given point. Severe storm coverage will be lower in the standard risk, but significant severe weather is still possible. This has the potential to be a high-impact severe weather outbreak.

Without going nerdy, this graphic combines several weather ingredients from a set of weather models. This graphic shows where the most favorable ingredients for significant, long-track tornadoes may end up on Friday afternoon. This is not a forecast, but just one model interpretation. Current data suggests the highest tornado threat will be from Indiana/Ohio down to Tennessee. In addition to the tornado potential, widespread straight-line winds are likely. Some of these winds could be above 80 MPH and cause tornado-like damage… This event may be underway by mid-morning on Friday and continue through the evening hours.

We’ll continue to post occasional updates on the severe weather threat out east, providing continuous coverage on our twitter account @TxStormChasers 


Thursday’s Severe Weather Risk Trimmed for Texas

22 February 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

Latest model guidance has come in less aggressive for Thursday’s severe weather potential. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has removed all except extreme Southeast Texas from the standard risk of severe weather. We’ll continue monitoring this potential event and post an update a little later today, but at this point it looks like Thursday might be quieter then we thought yesterday.


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