Another Day; Another Risk of Severe Weather

06 May 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

This graphic shows the probability of experiencing a severe thunderstorm within 25 miles of your location today and tonight. The brown shaded zones are what we consider a low risk, or a 5 percent chance. Within the yellow zone, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a standard risk of severe weather which means there is a 15 percent chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of any given point. Thunderstorm coverage will be isolated across South Texas with a slightly higher coverage expected across North Texas.

The strongest storms will be capable of producing golfball size hail and damaging winds in excess of 60 MPH. However, all storms will be capable of producing cloud to ground lightning. As it is a Sunday and numerous outdoor events are planned, please keep that in mind. Thunderstorms should begin firing by 4 to 5 PM to the west of Interstate 35 and begin approaching Interstate 35 by 6 to 9 PM. Remember, expect the unexpected when it comes to thunderstorms and have a way to receive weather warnings later this afternoon, especially if you’re planning to be outdoors. When thunder roars, go indoors!

We’ll be chasing northwest of Fort Worth this afternoon and plan on following the storms back into the metroplex. We’ll have live video available after 1 PM.

3 PM Chase Update

04 May 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

I made it to Jacksboro where I’m sitting with a few other chasers waiting for storms to fire up. We have a decent cumulus field in place and the first storms are attempting to develop about 50 miles west.

The Storm Prediction Center has recently issued a discussion stating a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued for portions of western North Texas and the Hill Country within a few hours. Any storms that develop this afternoon will have the potential to produce very large, damaging hail in addition to downburst winds.

We’re already out chasing and you can watch us live at www.TexasStormChasers.com/live

2 PM Severe Weather Update

19 April 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

Here is the latest severe weather outlook for this evening from the Storm Prediction Center. The probability table on the left part of this image shows the chance of severe weather within 25 miles of any given point this evening. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the northwest half of North Texas, along with Northwest Texas and Oklahoma in a standard risk of severe weather this evening. An elevated risk of severe weather has been placed across the Red River counties into Central Oklahoma, where SPC believes there will be a slightly higher coverage of severe storms this evening. Personally, I believe the highest threat will stay north of the Red River this evening. The main threats will be “coin-size” hail. This graphic comes from the 12Z North American Model and shows projected instability amounts at 7 PM this evening. A dryline will be located roughly from San Angelo northward to Vernon, north into Oklahoma. Ahead of the dryline, instability values are projected to be 1,500 to 2,000 joules per kilogram. Those are actually fairly marginal for a late-April event, but still sufficient to support organized thunderstorms. This graphic comes from the same model, also for 7 PM Thursday, and shows the overall strength of the inversion layer, or cap. A weak cap is defined as anything below 1.0C on this graphic, or the green colors. The latest version of the NAM projects that the cap is going to be quite strong across Texas and Southern Oklahoma at 7 PM with a weaker cap in North Oklahoma. This suggests to me that we won’t have much going on at 7 PM this evening and that thunderstorms won’t form until the cold front begins to arrive around 8 or 9 PM, perhaps even a touch later. The Rapid Update Cycle (RUC), a high resolution model run every hour, tends to agree with no convection at 7 PM across Northwest Texas or Oklahoma due to the strong cap in place. Fast forward to around 10 to 11 PM and the RUC breaks out a complex of thunderstorms across Central Oklahoma as the cold front arrives and brings enough forcing to allow thunderstorms to develop. Keep in mind this is only a simulated image and the radar probably won’t look remotely like this later tonight. The overall wind shear and instability present will support a severe weather threat. Large hail and damaging winds will be the issues with this complex of storms in Oklahoma later tonight. As the night progresses, thunderstorms will approach North Texas. They will likely be in their weakening phase by this point with a few strong to marginally severe storms possible as the cold front pushes southeast. The most likely timeframe would be 1 AM to 5 AM across North Texas. We may head up to Oklahoma later this evening to try our hand at lightning photography. If we end up doing that, we’ll have our live stream up. In addition, we now have a chat room placed on the live video page!

April 13 Severe Weather Outlook

13 April 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

This graphic shows the overall probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any given point later this afternoon into the evening hours. The teal line identifies locations within the standard risk of severe weather, which means there is a 15% chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any given point (such as your house). The standard severe weather risk includes much of North Texas and extends northeastward into OK/KS/MO. For those wondering, the white dotted line simply means there is a threat for significant severe weather (very large hail). Within the smaller yellow outline across Southern Kansas and Oklahoma, there is an elevated risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening. A 30 percent chance of severe weather within 25 miles exists (such as your house) within this zone. In addition, this is where the tornado threat will be highest today. There is a possibility a portion of the elevated risk will be upgraded to higher severe weather probabilities later today as it becomes more clear exactly where thunderstorms will occur today.

Significant Tornado Outbreak likely on Saturday

12 April 2012 David Reimer 3 Comments

A high-end, very dangerous, severe weather and tornado outbreak is anticipated on Saturday across Oklahoma, Kansas, and perhaps extreme North Texas. The Storm Prediction Center has already placed much of Oklahoma and Kansas in a SIGNIFICANT Risk of severe weather, shown by the purple color. Within that zone, there is nearly a 1 in 2 chance of experiencing severe weather on Saturday. All indications are suggesting this will be a very significant severe weather event capable of producing long-track, violent tornadoes. I don’t say this to scare anyone, but simply to say you need to be prepared for Saturday. Across North Texas, a cap will limit the overall thunderstorm development. However, any thunderstorm that forms along the dryline on Saturday in North Texas will be capable of producing high-end severe weather including tornadoes. Please take the time now to prepare a severe weather safety plan and have a way to receive weather warnings on Saturday. If you have family or friends in Central Oklahoma and Central/Northeast Kansas, let them know about Saturday’s potential.