The Storm Prediction Center is saying the threat for severe weather is diminishing as time goes on this evening. We’re down to two severe thunderstorms as of 9:15 PM. The first is near Kaufman in North Texas with the second near Kerrville in the Hill Country. All storms across Central Texas have dissipated and additional development is not anticipated tonight. The line of storms across East Texas is also quickly weakening with the lone severe storm near Kaufman just east of Dallas holding it’s own for the moment. The trend should be for storms to continue weakening through 10:30 PM and the severe thunderstorm watch will be allowed to expire for most counties. The exception may be for a few counties in South Texas and perhaps North Texas where thunderstorms continue but the watch likely only be extended by an hour or two.
While the severe weather threat will continue to diminish through 10:30 PM there are actually additional thunderstorms developing from Sonora east to Junction and Mason in Southwest Texas. These storms are producing plenty of cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain. While a significant severe weather threat is not anticipated a few of these storms could briefly become severe with quarter size hail but the rain will be worth it.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0379
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0910 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014
AREAS AFFECTED…PARTS OF CNTRL/S CNTRL TEXAS
CONCERNING…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85…
VALID 220210Z – 220315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85
SUMMARY…IN GENERAL…THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AND
ANOTHER WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR NEEDED…BUT A LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION
IN TIME FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
DISCUSSION…COLD POOL CONSOLIDATION AND STRENGTHENING WAS
APPARENTLY NOT SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT TO OVERCOME
INCREASING INHIBITION /WITH SURFACE COOLING/ FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
PARCELS SOUTHEAST OF THE HILL COUNTRY. EVEN WITH THE ONGOING
CLUSTERING OF STORMS ACROSS THE JUNCTION/KERRVILLE AREAS…POTENTIAL
FOR APPRECIABLE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DOUBTFUL GIVEN THE LACK OF A MORE SUBSTANTIVE LOW-LEVEL JET.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING PERSISTS IN STRONGER STORMS…PARTICULARLY WITH
STORMS SLOWLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OF THE DALLAS METRO AREA…BUT
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING…OR AT LEAST
BECOMING TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE/SPARSE IN COVERAGE FOR ANOTHER
SEVERE WEATHER WATCH.