The Storm Prediction Center has issued the new severe weather outlook for later today. A standard risk of severe weather exists across much of North Texas, all of Northeast and East Texas, along with portions of Central Texas and the Brazos Valley. This severe weather risk is going to be conditional on thunderstorm development later this afternoon along the dryline. We’re not expecting a widespread severe weather event. There’s even a chance that storms may not be able to develop at all this afternoon due to a strong cap. However, any storm that does develop will likely become supercelluar with a threat of baseball size hail, damaging winds, and be capable of producing tornadoes.
An enhanced risk of severe weather is in place across the eastern half of Oklahoma and the Red River from Whitesboro east to Texarkana. This enhanced area is where confidence is higher in storms actually being able to develop along the dryline and advancing cold front this afternoon. Again, there is a chance no storms will be able to develop in Texas this afternoon due to a strong cap. That will not be the case this morning as a upper level disturbance spreads over the region and produces a large area of showers with a few embedded storms.
Stay tuned for updates today as the evolution of today’s setup becomes more clear. The evening weather model guidance did lower my confidence in storms actually being able to break the cap this afternoon, but they’re also very clear if a storm is able to develop in North and Northeast Texas it could pose a considerable tornado risk. Thus today’s risk is conditional on storm development. We could have a pleasant evening or end up with major storms. It will all come down to the cap and mesoscale features (those features we can’t detect more than a few hours out).