Chance of severe weather on Friday

After a quiet week of weather, things are about to take a major turn and we may have the most active spring weather we’ve seen in a few years. All indications are pointing to a very strong storm system will begin to influence the Southern Plains on Friday. At this time, the Storm Prediction Center has placed much of West Texas in a low probability of severe weather. The brown, dotted outline shows a 5% chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of any given point on Friday. There is uncertainty with how many thunderstorms will be able to develop along the dryline on Friday, which is why higher severe weather probabilities have not been introduced.

12Z NAM: Instability values at 1 PM Friday

For the first time this spring season, we’re going to have instability values that are actually representative of a warm-season spring event verses a winter-time low instability event. Even at 1 PM on Friday, instability values are already over 3,000 joules per kilogram. That’s quite high for early March. Any storms that develop on Friday along the dryline in the Texas Panhandle will likely be supercells with the potential for very large hail and damaging downburst winds. Tornado potential will be determined as we get closer to the event, but there certainly may be the potential for tornadoes on Friday. The good thing for residents is that the number of storms will likely remain limited.

Sunday's Severe Weather Outlook

This is the severe weather outlook for Sunday. For this outlook, the Storm Prediction Center only highlights regions that have the potential for widespread, significant severe weather potential. As you can see, we already have a large area of West Texas, northward into Nebraska included in a risk. Locations in that purple zone have a 30% chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of any given point on Sunday, thus it is an elevated risk. We’re still five days out, so it’s useless to try and pinpoint any specific threats. However, this event appears to have the potential to become a severe weather outbreak with all modes of severe weather possible. While not included on this graphic, the risk will shift eastward and continue on Monday and Tuesday. Residents of Texas, and the Southern Plains, should monitor the potential for a major weather event from Monday through Wednesday of next week. Besides the severe weather potential, weather models are suggesting the potential for a corridor of six to ten inch rain amounts over a short period of time. That would cause a fairly significant flooding event. No use in pinpointing specific locations, but know much of Texas (and the entire Southern Plains) does have the risk for a weather event early next week.