Posts Tagged ‘northwest texas’
2:15 PM Severe Weather Update and Analysis
- Published on Wednesday, 01 May 2013 14:13
- David Reimer
- 45 Comments
The Storm Prediction Center maintains a slight risk of severe weather this afternoon. This is the standard risk of severe weather, so don’t take the word ‘slight’ as meaning only a small risk. This risk runs from Del Rio and Uvalde northward to the Red River to include Vernon and Iowa Park. Junction, San Angelo, Abilene, and Seymour are a few more cities included in the risk. A cumulus field has already begun to form across Northwest Texas. As a cold front continues to move south out of the Panhandle, it will provide the forcing needed to for thunderstorm development.
As you might expect for the first day of May, the atmosphere is very unstable. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values are over 3,000 J/Kg. Those values are supportive of organized thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and gusty winds. We don’t have much in the way of wind shear today, so there is very little tornado threat. In addition, we may not have much in the way of supercell structure today because of the weaker wind shear. As thunderstorms begin to develop this afternoon, they will likely begin producing outflow boundaries. These boundaries will help additional thunderstorms develop and merge into a south/southeastward moving cluster of storms capable of producing large hail and gusty winds.
Jenny is out chasing today and should have some good photos later this evening! We’ll be posting updates as needed this afternoon so stay tuned!
Tornado Watch until 11 PM for Northwest Texas
- Published on Wednesday, 17 April 2013 13:32
- David Reimer
- 22 Comments
The Storm Prediction Center has just issued a Tornado Watch for parts of Northwest Texas until 11 PM. This watch does include Vernon and Wichita Falls. A large portion of Central Oklahoma is included in this watch and that is where we expect the most significant severe weather today. Discrete thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging hail and tornadoes while the line of storms later tonight will be a hail/wind producer. We’ll be monitoring for storm development and the entire team is out chasing today. We’ll do our best to post occasional updates.
TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY FOARD HARDEMAN KNOX WICHITA WILBARGER
Active Severe Weather Day Tomorrow
- Published on Tuesday, 16 April 2013 22:14
- David Reimer
- 15 Comments
If you watched our live chat earlier, you know there are several possibilities in regards to tomorrow’s severe weather potential. As of the latest outlook, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a significant risk of severe weather for a large portion of Central Oklahoma southwest into Northwest Texas. This significiant risk runs from Vernon southeast to Bowie and includes Wichita Falls. This is where confidence is highest in the development of surface-based supercells capable of producing all modes of severe weather, including a tornado threat. Outside the significant risk zone, there is an elevated risk of severe weather from Childress eastward to Sherman, southward to Highway 380. Surrounding those two risk zones is the standard risk of severe weather. Here it is in graphical form.
Timing wise, we still believe the highest threat for discrete supercells will be in the significant risk zone after 2 PM. South of the significant risk zone, a strong cap will likely prevent thunderstorms from developing until after sunset. If any discrete storms are able to develop along the dryline in West Texas, no matter the risk zone, they would be capable of producing all modes of severe weather. Around 10 PM, a cold front will begin moving southward into Texas. A line of thunderstorms will already be in progress or develop soon after. This line of storms will continue to push southeastward into North and Central Texas. The severe weather threat will remain with large hail and damaging winds being the two main issues. Current data suggests this line of storms could impact the Interstate 35 corridor from Waco northward into D/FW after 2-3 AM, although it could be as late as sunrise.
We really need to get into the morning hours on Wednesday before we can get too specific on timing and storm mode. Variability remains high and confidence remains below average with this forecast, so please check back in the morning.
Severe Weather Possible Tuesday and Wednesday
- Published on Saturday, 13 April 2013 16:26
- David Reimer
- 13 Comments
All eyes are looking ahead to next week as another storm system moves across the Plains. As it is April, our most obvious concern will be the severe weather potential associated with this system. This system looks to be similar to the one to impact the region earlier this week. An unseasonably strong cold front will move south in the wake of this system, bringing a chance for a very late season freeze for some. Being we’re still several days out from this potential event, let’s focus on what we actually know at this point.
Short Discussion: On Tuesday, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a severe weather risk for much of Oklahoma and portions of Northwest Texas. With their latest outlook, areas within a Childress-Abilene-Wichita Falls corridor have been included in the risk. That is the area where I believe the greatest risk from severe storms would be on Tuesday based on current data. In Texas, a strong cap in place and a lack of upper level forcing, storm coverage will be isolated. This means only one or two storms may develop, but any storms that develops will be capable of producing significant severe weather. On the other side of the spectrum, there is even the possibility that no storms may develop thanks to the cap. These details will become more clear by the time we get to Monday. Tuesday could end up being confined to areas north of Texas.
Wednesday looks to be the busiest day for Texas. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a severe weather risk for all of North and Northeast Texas. The western edge of this risk is from Wichita Falls, Graham, Breckenridge, to Cisco and continues east/southeast. All of the D/FW Metroplex and surrounding municipalities are included in this risk. Sherman, Hillsboro, Tyler, and Texarkana are a few of the larger cities in this risk. Similar to last week, a strong cold front will be pushing south across Oklahoma on Wednesday. Ahead of this cold front, rich moisture and warm temperatures will promote moderate to strong instability values. With a strong upper level disturbance in the area, wind shear will be more than high enough to support organized thunderstorms. Beyond that, we cannot get more specific now since we’re still five days out. Just know that we look to have a risk of severe weather on Tuesday and Wednesday. As of now, Wednesday looks to be the most active day.
Here is an example of how the surface dewpoint chart may look by Tuesday afternoon. Rich, humid moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will flow northward with gusty southeast winds. A dryline will take shape across Northwest Texas with humid air east of it and very dry air to the west. Where this occurs in Northwest Texas, the cap will be weakest and where a few storms may develop. This isn’t set in stone and considering we’re still several days out from any potential severe weather, you can expect several changes to the forecast.
April Fool’s Day 2013 Severe Weather for Northwest Texas
- Published on Monday, 01 April 2013 02:00
- David Drummond
- 11 Comments
I’d like to say we’re pulling a prank you on here, but unfortunately not this time. A closed low off to our west will slowly edge our way, while the tail end of a cold front trailing from all the way up in Canada will ease southward through the southern Panhandle and South Plains area today, and should provide the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. In fact, the SPC has issued a standard risk of Severe Weather for the area.
Vertical wind profiles aren’t impressive, but they are better than they were with the activity the other day, and while surface moisture may be a bit lacking, we could still see some supercell storms emerge, with the primary threat being large hail. Some high wind gusts are also a possibility, and even a brief window of opportunity late evening for a short lived tornado or two across the eastern south plains and adjacent rolling plains, with any individual supercells that may exist during that period.
Activity should move off to the east through the southern rolling plains, likely affecting areas along and north of the I20 corridor. Activity will likely persist well into the late evening, perhaps even early morning hours as it moves east. In fact, it may well evolve into a large Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) late, as depicted by some models, as it marches toward North Texas. Once activity evolves into this mode, the threats should mostly be hail and high winds, and this could also be a nice rain producer for a lot of people!
Highest threat at this time for supercell storms appears to be along and east of US385, and probably south of a Dimmitt to Childress, TX line down to around the I20 corridor. This area will likely be refined during the day tomorrow as more data comes to light.
Northwest Texas, please check back with us, as well as have your weather radios turned on throughout the day on Monday. I’ll be out chasing in the area as well tomorrow, and you’ll be able to check right here at TexasStormChasers.com and watch live, and as always well keep you updated both here and through our social media accounts.