April 26 Severe Weather Outlook

26 April 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

This graphic shows the probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any given point, such as a house, this afternoon and evening. The green color represents a 5 percent risk, the orange color represents a 15 percent risk, and the dark-orange color represents a 30 percent risk. I’m in Oklahoma City right now about to head west on Interstate 40 towards the Texas Panhandle. At this point, I don’t have particularly high confidence that storms will be able to break through the cap before sunset. If the cap wins out this evening, I expect a line of storms to form around 9 or 10 PM as the upper level forcing arrives. The primary severe weather risks this afternoon and early evening will be the possibility of a brief tornado and very large hail with the strongest storms. Later tonight, the threats will transition over to a hail and damaging wind threat.

Be sure to bookmark our live video page!

High Risk of Severe Weather (RARE) Issued for Saturday in OK/KS

13 April 2012 David Reimer 8 Comments

This graphic shows the probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any given location on Saturday. Let me first say ignore the scale on the bottom-right part of the image. The color-scale is not properly matched up for some reason. Let me first start off by saying that the highest severe weather risk will be in Oklahoma and Kansas, but a severe weather risk does extend south into Texas on Saturday. Generally speaking, the most significant severe weather risk will stay close to the Red River and from Vernon eastward to Henrietta. That could chance as new data comes in, so be sure to check back.

In terms of Oklahoma and Kansas, the Storm Prediction Center made history this morning by issuing the earliest issuance of a High Risk of Severe Weather in a convective outlook. Normally these high risks are issued within hours of the event, not an entire two days out. In fact, this is only the second time in recorded history that a high risk has been posted two days out and the first one was issued in the afternoon hours (this one was posted in the morning). Within the high risk zone, shown in the teal color, there is a 60 percent chance of severe weather occuring within 25 miles of any given location. Those are the highest probabilities issued in a severe weather outlook. Surrounding that high risk, there is a 45 percent chance of severe weather within 25 miles of any given point. As of the morning outlook, that risk extends from Wichita Falls, Texas northward into much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and into Southern Nebraska. Elevated (red color) and standard (yellow) severe weather probabilities surround those risks.

A significant outbreak of severe weather is expected on Saturday in Kansas and Oklahoma where atmospheric ingredients will be supportive of a tornado outbreak. Due to the expected instability and wind shear values, long-track, violent tornadoes will be possible with the strongest supercells. The Oklahoma City and Wichita Metropolitan Areas are included in this high risk of tornadoes on Saturday. It looks like it will end up being a busy day, with the highest severe weather chances actually occurring after sunset! While the severe weather risk is high, there’s no reason to be scared. Have a way to receive weather warnings and take the proper precautions if you come under a warning. Remember that even large tornadoes are small compared to the size of a county. See this page for severe weather safety tips.

We’ll be chasing Friday and Saturday and will have live streaming chase video running on our live video page. Stay tuned…

Severe Weather Outbreak on Sunday and Monday (Includes MUCH of Texas!)

15 March 2012 David Reimer 4 Comments

Severe Weather Risks for Sunday and Monday

This graphic shows the severe weather outlooks for Sunday (Day 4 red colors) and Monday (Day 5 purple colors). Unlike other graphics where I show you the probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any given point, these are different. Because these are four and five days out, only significant severe weather threats are outlined. Thus, anyone in one of these risks has a 30 percent chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of any given point.

On Sunday, areas from Fort Stockton, Texas on Interstate 10 northward through West Texas and the Texas Panhandle, north into Nebraska are in the elevated risk of severe weather. By Monday, that risk shifts eastward and includes areas generally along and on either side of Interstate 35. This risk does include large metropolitan areas such as San Antonio, Austin, Waco, Dallas, Fort Worth, Wichita Falls, Sherman, then northward into Oklahoma with Ardmore, Oklahoma City, and Tulsa. Those are just a few of the largest cities and do not include the hundreds of smaller towns.

Understand that we can’t be specific about the risks and timing at this point beyond what we have already said, but know that risks are not outlined this far in advance unless the threat is rather widespread and significant. Residents should be aware there is the potential for a severe weather outbreak with all modes of severe weather possible on Sunday and Monday. We’ll have more details in a meteorological discussion this evening, but this is the time to prepare for potential severe weather. Do you have a plan?

2008 Chases

18 January 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

Connor McCrorey began chasing storms in 2008. Many of these chase records demonstrate what it’s like to learn how to become a storm chaser. As his videos will show, you’re not always successful when first starting out. Below are a list of Connor McCrorey‘s 2008 storm chases. Each day listed below includes video, a chase recap, and numerous graphics that include upper air data, weather balloon data (known as a sounding), products from the Storm Prediction Center, and radar data from the event.

April 7, 2008 (Archer County, Texas Supercell and Hail)

April 23, 2008 (Palo Pinto County, Texas HP Supercell and Hail)

April 26, 2008 (San Angelo, Texas Supercell and Hail)

May 1, 2008 (Oklahoma City Tornadic Supercell)

November 5, 2008 (Oklahoma Supercell)

May 1, 2008 Storm Chase

18 January 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

Chase Video:

Chase Recap: Got out of school around 4:15, and immediately jumped on I-35 and blasted north towards Oklahoma City. Around the time we got to Ardmore, we noticed this suspicious looking cloud on the horizon, but the haze prevented us from knowing anything else about it. As we got closer, it became clear that this was going to be a great chase afternoon on a beautiful supercell. While this never dropped any tornadoes , it produced a few small funnels from time to time, and it had some big hail with it. Sorry for the shakiness of the camera… Going through Oklahoma City slowed us down, so most of the video we were hauling down the highway, and it was hard to hold the camera steady. This was easily one of the most gorgeous storms I have ever seen.

Weather Images