The Storm Prediction Center has placed a good portion of the Panhandle region and a small portion of far northwest Texas around Childress under a Standard Risk for severe weather this afternoon and evening. Northwest flow aloft, a surface low plus a few boundaries left over from earlier convection will help create sufficient lift to fire off some strong to severe storms this afternoon. A cold front will approach the panhandle and northwest Oklahoma later this evening which will further aid in storm development. The greatest threats with storms developing this afternoon and evening will be damaging winds and large hail. The tornado probability is low, but there is a slight chance of a tornado or two developing within any of the stronger storms. For the areas outlined in brown…just slight chances of widely scattered afternoon pop-up convection once we reach peak heating for today. A few storms could develop and become strong with 40-50mph winds gusts, but widespread severe is not expected in those areas.
There Storm Prediction Center has also issued a Mesoscale Discussion indicating a 40% probability of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be issued for the area outlined in blue later this afternoon, mainly for Oklahoma, but there could be a small portion of the far eastern panhandle and northwest Texas along the Red River included as well. We’ll keep an eye on that for you. If you’re planning to be out and about in the risk areas this afternoon, keep an eye on the sky and be prepared to head indoors should threatening weather approach. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you can be struck by lightning!
(Graphic below courtesy of the NWS Southern Region Headquarters)