Tag Archives: panhandle

Weather Roundup – Thursday July 3rd

Happy Thursday everyone!  Lots of folks north of the DFW metro area were awakened at about 3:30am this morning with a barrage of lightning, thunder and brief heavy downpours.  That area of rain has now moved off to the east and south of the metro, but it looks like some additional rain and thunder may be on its way from the northwest.   We’ll see if that holds together long enough to affect the metro in a few hours.  Further west, more storms developed overnight across parts of the southern panhandle east of Lubbock and on over into northwest Texas.  This whole line of storm development is right along the frontal boundary that’s been sloshing around the past few days, and it will continue to be the focus for additional storms today in and around the southern panhandle, west central Texas, northwest Texas and the southern portions of north Texas.  We are expecting somewhat of a lull in activity right around noon today before things pick back up again this afternoon.  Overall severe threat is low, but we could have a few strong to severe storms around with gusty winds, small hail, frequent lightning and heavy rain as the main threats.  Here’s a look at what we’ve got going on right now on radar, and a graphical look at what you might expect later this morning and during the afternoon hours.  Whatever storms do pop up this afternoon should quickly die out after the sun sets.

Current Radar

FWD this morning LUB Today 4pm HRRR

Highs today…not too bad overall, mainly due to cloud cover and the effects of area storms.  However, high humidity and highs in the mid 90’s will keep Heat Index values hight once again for southeast Texas, coastal bend and upper coast.  Victoria, Houston, Beaumont, Conroe and Huntsville…all have a chance at seeing Heat Index values at or slightly above 100 degrees by peak daytime heating.  Try to avoid outdoor work during the hottest part of the day, and stay hydrated! That’s it for this morning.  Continue to stick with us for additional updates on Hurricane Arthur throughout the day and evening!

Highs Lows

Some Strong to Severe Storms Expected Overnight

The forecast is beginning to refine itself after the muddlement caused by this morning’s storm system.  Another round of strong to severe storms looks likely overnight…this time the main focus will be across the western panhandle and down into west central Texas.  Storms have already begun to form across eastern New Mexico and are expected to gradually fill in over the next several hours and work their way into our state.  There’s not much in the way of steering currents in the atmosphere that will move these storms around very quickly, so slow-moving storms with heavy rainfall is almost a given through early tomorrow morning.  Some of the overnight storms could reach severe limits with winds in excess of 60mph and flooding rains, so do be aware of that possibility.  We also have some spotty shower and storm development this evening across central Texas along a boundary deposited there by this morning’s batch of storms.  One cell is currently severe warned west of Fredericksburg and Harper until 8:30pm.  The Storm Prediction Center has removed the threat of severe weather for south central and southeast Texas, so whatever has popped up should quickly die off after sunset with just local heavy rain and gusty outflow winds as the primary threats. Below is a look at the current radar, and a few graphics to show what you might expect overnight with regard to storm development. As always, keep in mind it’s just what a computer thinks will happen and reality could turn out a bit different.

Current

10pm 2am 6am

 

6:00PM Update – Storms Developing Across the Texas Panhandle

Once again, the radar began lighting up earlier this afternoon with numerous showers and a few thunderstorms developing along a weak trough/boundary over north central Texas.  Most of this activity has stayed just to the north and west of the DFW metro area and is expected to linger there for the next several hours.  Further west, storms developed over eastern New Mexico earlier this afternoon and are now heading into the western panhandle region.  Currently, the most severe cell is located near the town of Morton in Cochran county.  This cell is capable of producing winds in excess of 60mph and hail up to 1.25 inches.  This storm is moving at about 15-20mph…slow enough to cause some localized flash flooding issues.  Below is a look at current radar and two forecast graphics for what the radar might look like over the next several hours.  The potential for severe weather will diminish as we get closer to midnight.

Radar 5-50pm

 

7pm 9pm

Weather Roundup – Tuesday April 22nd

Much quieter today weather-wise with just a slight chance of some afternoon and early evening pop-up showers and storms across west Texas.  Overall a very nice day expected, then severe weather chances return again for Wednesday and again over the weekend.  Highs today…getting warmer, but still quite bearable.  Lows tonight, cool and also quite bearable.  Anything under 100 degrees = “bearable”.

Highs Today

Lows Tonight

Starting off this morning with some patchy dense fog across parts of north central Texas, and along the central coastal region.   All of this should burn off within the next hour or so.  We have a chance for some pop up afternoon and evening thundershowers across parts of western Texas.  Not a lot of storm coverage is expected, but a few could bring some small hail, gusty winds and frequent lightning.

MAF Rain today

Sim radar 0Z

Wednesday, severe weather chances return with the central and eastern panhandle and southern rolling plains all under the gun once again for isolated severe thunderstorms.  David published a blog earlier this morning regarding that potential that you can check out here: http://www.texasstormchasers.com/?p=28603

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I know we don’t usually get too far ahead with the forecast because so many factors can change that may have a significant impact on what will eventually happen, but things are shaping up for an even more significant weather event over the weekend for portions of central, north central and northeast Texas…and on up into Oklahoma and Kansas. A very potent low pressure system is forecasted to approach the the state by late Friday, and with moderate to high atmospheric instability in place, plenty of gulf moisture and lots of wind shear…that could spell big trouble for folks across these regions.  Still too soon to be certain of exactly what impacts will be felt on Saturday and Sunday across the state, but if you have outdoor activities planned for this coming weekend, make sure you check back and stay up to date on the forecast.

2014-04-22_3-59-01

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But wait…there’s MORE!  After we get through Saturday and Sunday, we’re looking at the chance for another strong cold front to impact the state with frost possible across parts of the panhandle and northern Texas by the middle of next week.  Definitely way too soon to be talking about that, but it’s looking like cold weather just isn’t quite done with us yet!

814temp.new

Weather Roundup – Friday February 28th – Spring-like Today & Saturday then Winter Returns on Sunday

Good morning and TGIF!  For today’s roundup, I’m only going to lightly touch on conditions expected today, then jump into a bit longer discussion about what to expect Sunday with the next strong cold front and the chances for severe weather and winter weather.  Anyone that has lived in Texas for any length of time knows that we can experience all four seasons in one day!  So, let’s get started!  Temps will warm up quite a bit today with highs in the 70’s  and 80’s across the state.  It will be dry and windy though…with the dryline pushing east to along the I-35 corridor by this afternoon.  Winds gusting to 25 to 35+mph, lots of dry grass and low humidity levels will lead to critical wildfire conditions today.  Winds should begin to die down by early evening, becoming relatively calm overnight with lows ranging from the 30’s across the panhandle, 40’s across north central, central and west central Texas…and 50’s to 60’s expected further south along the coast.

Red Flag Highs

Lows

Now, let’s jump ahead to the forecast for late Saturday and into Sunday.  A strong cold front will begin to drop down into the state late Saturday affecting the panhandle region first…then northern Texas by early Sunday morning.  In addition to the chance for winter weather across parts of the panhandle late Saturday and into Sunday morning, and northern Texas during the day on Sunday…we also have a chance for some severe weather as storms form out ahead of the advancing cold front.  The Storm Prediction Center has already placed a portion of north central, central and eastern Texas under a threat for severe weather. The timing for this would be Sunday afternoon…mainly from Noon until around 6pm.  This could change depending upon how fast the cold front moves through, but for now, expect that there could be severe storm development with the threat of large hail, damaging winds and even a small tornado threat Sunday afternoon.

Sunday SPC Risk

Here’s what we have right now as far as frontal timing.  Recent forecast model runs have the cold air coming in faster than what it was showing just a few days ago, so the timing presented on the graphic set below could change between now and Sunday and speed up just a bit.  But for now, this should give everyone a good idea of what to expect.

Midnight Saturday Front 6am Sunday Front Noon Sunday Front 6pm Sunday Front

The panhandle has a chance of seeing wintry weather beginning late Saturday and into early Sunday with light sleet and snow accumulations.  Further south along the Red River and into north central Texas…including the DFW metro area…winter weather is also possible, but will be completely dependent upon how fast the front moves through and how cold the temps are at the time the expected precipitation is falling.  At this point, it looks fairly likely and this could result in  some icy road conditions developing across the area Sunday afternoon.  We will have more updates on any winter weather risks for the DFW Metro later today and into tomorrow after more forecast model data arrives.

AMA Snow Sat-Sunday FWD Sunday Winter Wx

 

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