Good morning and TGIF! For today’s roundup, I’m only going to lightly touch on conditions expected today, then jump into a bit longer discussion about what to expect Sunday with the next strong cold front and the chances for severe weather and winter weather. Anyone that has lived in Texas for any length of time knows that we can experience all four seasons in one day! So, let’s get started! Temps will warm up quite a bit today with highs in the 70′s and 80′s across the state. It will be dry and windy though…with the dryline pushing east to along the I-35 corridor by this afternoon. Winds gusting to 25 to 35+mph, lots of dry grass and low humidity levels will lead to critical wildfire conditions today. Winds should begin to die down by early evening, becoming relatively calm overnight with lows ranging from the 30′s across the panhandle, 40′s across north central, central and west central Texas…and 50′s to 60′s expected further south along the coast.
Now, let’s jump ahead to the forecast for late Saturday and into Sunday. A strong cold front will begin to drop down into the state late Saturday affecting the panhandle region first…then northern Texas by early Sunday morning. In addition to the chance for winter weather across parts of the panhandle late Saturday and into Sunday morning, and northern Texas during the day on Sunday…we also have a chance for some severe weather as storms form out ahead of the advancing cold front. The Storm Prediction Center has already placed a portion of north central, central and eastern Texas under a threat for severe weather. The timing for this would be Sunday afternoon…mainly from Noon until around 6pm. This could change depending upon how fast the cold front moves through, but for now, expect that there could be severe storm development with the threat of large hail, damaging winds and even a small tornado threat Sunday afternoon.
Here’s what we have right now as far as frontal timing. Recent forecast model runs have the cold air coming in faster than what it was showing just a few days ago, so the timing presented on the graphic set below could change between now and Sunday and speed up just a bit. But for now, this should give everyone a good idea of what to expect.
The panhandle has a chance of seeing wintry weather beginning late Saturday and into early Sunday with light sleet and snow accumulations. Further south along the Red River and into north central Texas…including the DFW metro area…winter weather is also possible, but will be completely dependent upon how fast the front moves through and how cold the temps are at the time the expected precipitation is falling. At this point, it looks fairly likely and this could result in some icy road conditions developing across the area Sunday afternoon. We will have more updates on any winter weather risks for the DFW Metro later today and into tomorrow after more forecast model data arrives.