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Posts Tagged ‘rain’

Rainfall totals through 7 AM

20 March 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

Rainfall totals through 7 AM

This graphic shows the radar estimated rainfall accumulations from 7 AM on Monday through 7 AM on Tuesday. Generally speaking, the heaviest rainfall occurred within about 75 miles of the Interstate 35 corridor from San Antonio northward into Oklahoma. Keep in mind that rainfall is still occurring and that additional rainfall is likely in East Texas. This will go a long way to help improve, and in some cases, eliminate drought conditions!

Rain Forecast Update; Heaviest Rain still expected on Saturday

09 March 2012 David Reimer 1 Comment

Good Friday Afternoon everyone!

I wanted to provide a brief update on our rain chances across Texas and the Southern Plains as we head into the weekend.

Here is a radar image taken at 12:30 PM, as you can see we have widespread shower activity across much Texas this afternoon. There are a few embedded thunderstorms, but the severe weather threat is very low today. These showers are not producing particularly heavy rainfall, but that threat will come on Saturday.

Here is the latest five day rainfall total forecast from the Hydrometerlogical Prediction Center. This graphic shows rainfall amounts from 6 AM this morning through 6 AM on Wednesday. Our primary rainfall event will be on Saturday and again on Sunday. As we’ve now had some of the rain fall, total upcoming rainfall amounts have come down. HPC still forecasts the heaviest rainfall amounts on Saturday and Sunday across Southeast Texas, extending back up into North Texas. The heaviest amounts, which could total an additional 3 to 4 inches, will be across Southeast Texas. I’m expecting the heaviest rainfall to occur on Saturday. While that is where the heaviest rain will be located, much of the state has already or will receive rainfall over the coming days.

This graphic comes from the North American Model and shows it’s interpretation of expected precipitation from 6 AM this morning through the weekend. As you can see, this model has the heaviest rain totals across North Texas, keeping Southeast Texas in a dry-slot and thus lower precipitation amounts. While this is certainly possible, I don’t forecast this to occur right now. We’ll keep an eye on it though and refine our forecast as needed. We’ll be posting updates as needed. Have a good Friday!

Updated Rain Totals; Heaviest Rain on Saturday

08 March 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

Here is the latest five day rainfall graphic from the Hydrometerlogical Prediction Center. This graphic shows expected rain totals from 6 PM on Thursday (so an hour ago) to 6 PM on Tuesday. Notice that these values haven’t changed much from this morning’s graphic. If anything, heavier rain totals have been shifted west a bit. We still expect rain totals to be heaviest along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor. From I-35 into East Texas, rainfall amounts will average three to five inches.

Here is a zoomed in shot of the rain totals. Luckily, rain expectations are not as high as they were a few days ago. We should still receive a widespread, multi-inch rain event, but we may not reach the threshold of significant flash flooding. If all this rain falls in the period of a few hours, there could definitely be flash flooding issues. If three to five inches of rain falls over the period of a day, the flash flooding potential will be mitigated somewhat. We’ll see what happens and will definitely keep you apprised of any flash flood watches in the coming days.

 

Updated Rain Totals

07 March 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

This graphic comes from the Hydrometerlogical Prediction Center and shows expected rain totals through 6 AM on Monday. Not a lot has changed since yesterday’s forecast. There is still some disagreement in weather models, so this numbers may fluctuate in coming forecasts. However, it’s looking like a wet Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

Severe Weather Update for Thursday

06 March 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

0Z NAM: Instability values at 12 PM Thursday

0Z NAM: Instability values at 6 PM Thursday

Evening model data has begun to arrive and is suggesting there will be some, but not much, of a severe weather threat on Thursday. A strong cold front will be moving southeastward across Texas on Thursday, starting off in the Texas Panhandle and quickly pushing southeast towards the Hill Country to East Texas. Ahead of the cold front, instability values will be between 750 and 1,250 J/Kg, which does suggest instability will be sufficient for some strong to severe thunderstorms.

0Z NAM: 3 KM Helicity values at 12 PM Thursday

This graphic shows the amount of spin in the lowest 3 KM of the atmosphere relative to storm motion. Ignore the very high values across Northwest Texas, that is behind the cold front. Ahead of the cold front, shear looks to be on the low side. Without getting to technical, the low level jet (winds around 5,000 feet above sea level) will be displaced to the east of the instability. That means that the best instability will be west of the best wind shear. This will tend to reduce the severe weather threat. Another factor going against widespread, significant severe weather will be cloud cover. It’s looking like light rain will be in place most of the day, so instability values will tend to remain low.

Thursday's Severe Weather Outlook

With those factors considered, the Storm Prediction Center has elected to issue their standard “slight” risk of Severe Weather on Thursday from San Angelo northward to Wichita Falls, then points east to Paris, Texas down to Tyler, and southwest through Waco. In that risk zone, there is a 15% chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any given point (such as your house) on Thursday. The low level wind fields really do not look impressive and I believe the tornado threat will remain very low. The primary severe weather threats will be Large Hail and Damaging straight-line winds to around 60 MPH. This doesn’t look like a widespread, major severe weather outbreak at this point. We’re still three days out though so we’ll definitely be keeping an eye on things.

See this post for the heavy rain discussion. 

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Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 34%
Wind: S at 18 mph
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