Tag Archives: risk

Another Stormy Night Likely

Monday, 17 June 2013 12:06
David Reimer
27 Comments

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Sorry for the short post and ‘naked’ graphic, I’m actually typing this up during a break in class.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of the Texas Panhandle and West Texas in a severe weather risk again today. We have highlighted an area where we believe severe weather is a higher chance today. This elevated risk zone, shown in red, includes Lubbock, Big Spring, Sweetwater, Spur, and Abilene. Initial thunderstorms will develop in eastern New Mexico before moving into Texas. By the time storms move into Texas, they will likely be in a line or large cluster of storms. The threats today will be hail up to the size of baseballs with straight-line winds exceeding 70 MPH in some locations. A brief tornado is not out of the question, but this is not a day we are particularly concerned with tornadoes. The threat for storms will increase after 5 PM and continue well into the overnight hours.

While not highlighted in the graphic, there is a chance a storm cluster may move east into North Texas after midnight. The storms will be weakening by that point, but they could still be strong. We’ll continue looking at data this afternoon to try and get a better idea on how far east storms will end up tonight.

Severe Weather Possible Today – Eastern Panhandle/Northwest Texas

Sunday, 16 June 2013 14:44
Jenny Brown
0 Comments

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The Storm Prediction Center has placed a good portion of the Panhandle region and a small portion of far northwest Texas around Childress under a Standard Risk for severe weather this afternoon and evening.  Northwest flow aloft, a surface low plus a few boundaries left over from earlier convection will help create sufficient lift to fire off some strong to severe storms this afternoon.  A cold front will approach the panhandle and northwest Oklahoma later this evening which will further aid in storm development.  The greatest threats with storms developing this afternoon and evening will be damaging winds and large hail.  The tornado probability is low, but there is a slight chance of a tornado or two developing within any of the stronger storms.  For the areas outlined in brown…just slight chances of widely scattered afternoon pop-up convection once we reach peak heating for today.  A few storms could develop and become strong with 40-50mph winds gusts, but widespread severe is not expected in those areas.

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There Storm Prediction Center has also issued a Mesoscale Discussion indicating a 40% probability of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be issued for the area outlined in blue later this afternoon, mainly for Oklahoma, but there could be a small portion of the far eastern panhandle and northwest Texas along the Red River included as well.  We’ll keep an eye on that for you.  If you’re planning to be out and about in the risk areas this afternoon, keep an eye on the sky and be prepared to head indoors should threatening weather approach.   Remember, if you can hear thunder, you can be struck by lightning!

(Graphic below courtesy of the NWS Southern Region Headquarters)

 

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HIGH RISK of Severe Weather for Chicago

Wednesday, 12 June 2013 15:19
David Reimer
75 Comments

2005

We don’t often post about weather outside Texas unless there is a significant threat to life and property. Seeing as that threshold is reached today, please pardon our increased coverage of this dangerous weather event. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a very rare HIGH RISK of severe weather for eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana. Sterling, Chicago, South Bend, and Fort Wayne are in this zone. Those inside the high risk zone (shaded in WHITE), have a very real chance of having strong tornadoes, destructive straight-line winds approaching 100 MPH, and damaging hail impact their general area tonight. A derecho is expected to develop tonight. This derecho will move east/southeast rapidly with a widespread destructive wind threat. This derecho will likely continue into Thursday and reach the Atlantic Seaboard. Like last year’s high-impact Derecho (wind-storm), this one could also be a national newsmaker.

Significant Severe Weather Event Expected to Impact the Northern Midwest

Wednesday, 12 June 2013 12:50
Jenny Brown
20 Comments

high risk

This is NOT Texas weather related, but because we know many of our fans have friends and family outside of Texas, we wanted to make you aware of a potentially SIGNIFICANT severe weather event expected to impact parts of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, lower Michigan and northwest Ohio later today and this evening.  As highlighted on the graphic above, the Storm Prediction Center has placed this portion of the US under a HIGH RISK of Severe Weather for this afternoon and evening.  This is the highest designation possible in the severe weather threat categories, and this is the first HIGH RISK designation issued  this year.   

The biggest threat is going to be wind…possibly in the form of a derecho, or “bow echo” as you’ve probably heard on TV or radio.  Widespread wind damage is expected with winds in excess of 75 mph..possibly even close to or exceeding 100mph in some areas.  Very large hail to the size of baseballs is also possible…and if this hail is also wind-driven, it will most certainly be damaging and possibly lethal if caught out in it.   There is also a  elevated threat is for several large and strong tornadoes within any discreet storm cells that form in the afternoon, especially in the central Illinois areas.   The Chicago area is expected to feel the greatest impacts between 6pm and 11pm.   

If you have friends or family in any of the elevated risk areas above, please reach out to them and make sure they are aware of the potential for threatening weather this afternoon and evening.  Hopefully everyone has a way to receive weather warnings and a safe place to shelter if a warning is posted for their area.    

Broken Record? Another Severe Weather Day

Saturday, 08 June 2013 01:53
David Reimer
6 Comments

0620

 

The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the Texas Panhandle and West Texas in a risk of severe weather later today. The main risk times look to be between 4 PM and 12 AM. The western edge of the risk runs from Dalhart southwest to Clovis and Tatum, New Mexico. The southern edge of the risk runs north of a Denver City, Lamesa, Aspermont line. Finally, the risk runs east to a Aspermont, Crowell, to Altus (Oklahoma) line. Both Amarillo and Lubbock are included in today’s risk zone.

Today could be another active day for parts of the Panhandle and West Texas. We’ve entered the time of year where we don’t have a strong jet stream aloft, but we have what is called a northwest flow. Under this regime, winds in the mid and upper atmosphere are out of the northwest. This causes any thunderstorm complexes that develop in Colorado or Kansas to move southeast into Texas. This pattern sets us up for nightly mesoscale convective systems (MCS). Early this morning, a complex of thunderstorms was moving south from Hobbs to Lamesa with lighter rain extending up north to Pampa.

The problem with these nightly setups is that they are contingent on an actual storm complex developing across CO/KS. Sometimes this scenario is easy to map while other days confidence is lower. Today is a day where there is a chance of such a storm complex developing, but it will depend on how the afternoon plays out. Individual thunderstorms should develop by late afternoon across the risk area. These storms will be scattered around and won’t impact everyone, but an unstable atmosphere combined with adequate wind shear will allow some of the storms to become supercellar. In their supercellular form, large hail up to the size of golfballs and damaging winds over 60 MPH will be threats. If storms congeal into a MCS (a complex) later this evening, the threat of damaging straight-line winds over 70 MPH along with a secondary threat of large hail and flash flooding will exist. This complex of storms would move south/southeast. Time will tell if and where this complex might develop.

After a two day hiatus, we’re back in the saddle and will be covering today’s event. We’re sorry about missing Friday’s event, but we all needed a down day to catch up on other things and to take a breath. I’m sure everyone can understand the need to get away from things for a day. Anyway, we’re back and will be covering any issues we may have weatherwise.

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