The Storm Prediction Center issued a rare strongly-worded outlook for the Day 5 and Day 6 timeframe which happen to be this upcoming Saturday and Sunday. Some have already begun asking us about the potential for severe weather this weekend. We’ve been keeping an eye on weather models as there were two distinct camps: One had a marginal risk of severe weather on Saturday and Sunday while other camp had what can be described as a classic setup for some of our past significant severe weather events. The latest weather models that arrived overnight came into unusually decent agreement that the atmosphere will be setting up for a potential multi-day outbreak of severe weather this weekend. This threat not only includes Texas but Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Not only will this be a large threat-zone but it has the potential to include multiple days.
We’re still several days out from the weekend and thus there will be changes but there are some events that set-up in a way that it is fairly obvious a few days out that it could be a big problem. We’ve now reached that point for Saturday and Sunday. There will be timing and location changes regarding the risk zone but as of now Saturday and Sunday could both feature significant severe weather in Texas including the potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and destructive hail. We’ve still got to deal with the severe weather threat on Wednesday but please check back at least daily regarding this weekend’s potential as it could be rather ugly. There is no point in changes plans right now but keep the potential weather issue in the back of your mind. If you haven’t already done so form a safety plan for your family and practice it. Even if we end up with no severe weather this weekend it’s always good to have a safety plan both formed and practiced. You can bet we will be keeping a very close eye on the trends for this weekend and posting many updates as we get closer to this potential severe weather event.
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
VALID 251200Z – 301200Z
…SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL U.S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY…STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE…
22/00Z ECMWF IS EXHIBITING REASONABLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE GFS NOW TRENDING TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
THIS FORECAST IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF.
EARLIER CONCERNS REGARDING A POLAR FRONT UNDERCUTTING STRONG SWLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SRN PLAINS ARE LESSENING. WHILE UPPER BLOCK
OVER CNTRL CANADA WILL ULTIMATELY FORCE A DOMINANT SFC ANTICYCLONE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS…IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
AIR MASS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE MUCH SOUTH OF I-70 OVER KS/MO
STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD INTO THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS FAR SOUTH AS WEST TX AT 27/00Z. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE TO ADVANCE POLEWARD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHERE
PW VALUES SHOULD EASILY APPROACH 1.25 INCHES AS SFC DEW POINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR. LATEST
THINKING IS MODERATE-EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG ERN
PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM WCNTRL TX…NWD INTO SCNTRL KS
SATURDAY WHERE MUCAPE COULD APPROACH 4000 J/KG. IF THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT EVOLVES AS LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THEN POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES
CAN BE EXPECTED. CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ALONG DRYLINE FROM SWRN
TX…NWD INTO WRN KS SATURDAY THEN REDEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY FROM SERN
KS…SWD INTO CNTRL TX AS MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTS INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE MS VALLEY BY EARLY
MONDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE MAY CONTINUE INTO THE DAY7 PERIOD BUT
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION DURING THE DAY5-6 TIME FRAME COULD
POTENTIALLY DISRUPT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT…THUS CONFIDENCE IS
NOT AS HIGH.