Sorry for the short post and ‘naked’ graphic, I’m actually typing this up during a break in class.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of the Texas Panhandle and West Texas in a severe weather risk again today. We have highlighted an area where we believe severe weather is a higher chance today. This elevated risk zone, shown in red, includes Lubbock, Big Spring, Sweetwater, Spur, and Abilene. Initial thunderstorms will develop in eastern New Mexico before moving into Texas. By the time storms move into Texas, they will likely be in a line or large cluster of storms. The threats today will be hail up to the size of baseballs with straight-line winds exceeding 70 MPH in some locations. A brief tornado is not out of the question, but this is not a day we are particularly concerned with tornadoes. The threat for storms will increase after 5 PM and continue well into the overnight hours.
While not highlighted in the graphic, there is a chance a storm cluster may move east into North Texas after midnight. The storms will be weakening by that point, but they could still be strong. We’ll continue looking at data this afternoon to try and get a better idea on how far east storms will end up tonight.