Posts Tagged ‘Severe Weather Outbreak’
10:45 AM: Severe Weather Outbreak Preparing to Begin
- Published on Tuesday, 25 December 2012 10:39
- David Reimer
The Storm Prediction Center has just issued their late-morning outlook for severe weather. They have added a little more of Southeast Texas in the most significant risk of severe weather. This red zone shows where there is a 15% chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of your location. That is a very significant risk. The upper level energy responsible for the impending outbreak is just beginning to overspread East Texas. A broken line of thunderstorms has formed just west of Houston in the past 45 minutes. Several of these thunderstorms have exhibited rotation, but are still trying to develop. I do believe they will become much stronger by 12 PM.
This is a significant severe weather risk and there is a substantial risk of tornadoes once the storms get organized. There is even a enhanced for for strong tornadoes (EF2+). We’ll definitely be watching.
An interesting, but concerning observation from visible satellite imagery taken around 10:15 AM. Notice that there is some clearing going on ahead of the developing line of thunderstorms in Southeast Texas. That will only future destabilize the atmosphere and is definitely not a good thing. We’re here and will continue to cover this event.
Severe Weather Outbreak Underway in Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US; Tornadoes already confirmed
- Published on Saturday, 08 September 2012 12:45
- David Reimer
Several weather watches are already in place for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States this afternoon. The red box is a tornado watch and the blue box is a severe thunderstorm watch. A line of thunderstorms is in progress across central New York and central Pennsylvania. This line will continue to surge east with a risk of destructive winds over 70 MPH and isolated tornadoes. In addition, we’ve already seen a few discrete mini-supercells form ahead of the line this morning. Thunderstorms that form ahead, or east, of the line have a risk of tornadoes. In fact, we’ve already had a few tornadoes in the New York City Metro Area this morning.
This graphic shows the probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location this afternoon and this evening. Use the scale on the left side of the graphic to correlate your severe weather risk. Simply put, the purple color indicates the highest severe weather risk with the red color indicating an elevated severe weather risk. The orange shading is our standard severe weather risk and the brown color means there is a low risk. Notice that the highest risk zones do include multiple high population areas, such as Philadelphia and New York City.
Please stay tuned to your local media outlets and let your friends and family know about the risk if they are located in it!
Significant Severe Weather Outbreak still expected later Today!
- Published on Monday, 19 March 2012 10:05
- David Reimer
Visible Satellite at 9:40 AM
If you see sunshine today, that is NOT a good sign! The more sun we get, the more instability is able to build in. As you can see off this satellite image, there are breaks in the cloud cover that will allow instability to build…
Chance of severe weather within 25 miles of any given point
This graphic shows the probability of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of any given point (such as a house) this afternoon and tonight. The highest risk is shown by the red line, which means locations in that risk have a nearly 1 in 2 chance of having severe weather within close proximity to their location tonight. This graphic has the probability numbers listed on the lines. We’re getting ready to head out to chase, so no long blog post this morning. I’ll summarize it real fast.
Threats: Tornadoes, Very Large Hail, Damaging Winds, Flooding
Timing: 11 AM Monday – 7 AM Tuesday
Risk Areas: Central Texas, North Texas (Includes San Antonio, Austin, Waco, D/FW)
Please have a way to receive weather warnings this afternoon!!!
Severe Weather Outbreak for Texas/Oklahoma on Monday
- Published on Sunday, 18 March 2012 11:12
- David Reimer
[caption id="attachment_6795" align="aligncenter" width="600" caption="Chance of severe weather within 25 miles of any given point on Monday"][/caption]
This graphic comes from the Storm Prediction Center and shows the probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any given point (such as a house) on Monday, March 19. The standard risk of severe weather is defined as the 15% line, which includes all of Texas east of a Wichita Falls, Abilene, Del Rio line. The highest risk and most widespread severe weather is expected in the enhanced risk, which are areas within the red line. Areas within the red line have a 30% chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of any given point on Monday, which is fairly significant.
All modes of severe weather will be likely on Monday. That includes Tornadoes, Very Large Hail, damaging downburst winds, and flooding. The event may begin as early as the pre-dawn hours on Monday and continue into the overnight hours on Monday into early Tuesday. Several rounds of storms are possible and the risk is fairly significant. We’ll be out chasing tomorrow as well as today (Live video is up…).
Severe Weather Outbreak on Sunday and Monday (Includes MUCH of Texas!)
- Published on Thursday, 15 March 2012 09:22
- David Reimer
[caption id="attachment_6684" align="aligncenter" width="600" caption="Severe Weather Risks for Sunday and Monday"][/caption]
This graphic shows the severe weather outlooks for Sunday (Day 4 red colors) and Monday (Day 5 purple colors). Unlike other graphics where I show you the probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any given point, these are different. Because these are four and five days out, only significant severe weather threats are outlined. Thus, anyone in one of these risks has a 30 percent chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of any given point.
On Sunday, areas from Fort Stockton, Texas on Interstate 10 northward through West Texas and the Texas Panhandle, north into Nebraska are in the elevated risk of severe weather. By Monday, that risk shifts eastward and includes areas generally along and on either side of Interstate 35. This risk does include large metropolitan areas such as San Antonio, Austin, Waco, Dallas, Fort Worth, Wichita Falls, Sherman, then northward into Oklahoma with Ardmore, Oklahoma City, and Tulsa. Those are just a few of the largest cities and do not include the hundreds of smaller towns.
Understand that we can’t be specific about the risks and timing at this point beyond what we have already said, but know that risks are not outlined this far in advance unless the threat is rather widespread and significant. Residents should be aware there is the potential for a severe weather outbreak with all modes of severe weather possible on Sunday and Monday. We’ll have more details in a meteorological discussion this evening, but this is the time to prepare for potential severe weather. Do you have a plan?