Posts Tagged ‘Severe Weather Outlook’
Severe Weather Outlook for Monday
- Published on Monday, 20 May 2013 09:48
- Conley Isom
- 39 Comments
It was an active day in Tornado Alley yesterday, with heart breaking images of the destruction coming out of towns near Oklahoma City. Unfortunately, the eastern parts of Oklahoma are gong to be under the gun again today with a moderate risk for severe weather. Here in Texas, we missed out on Sunday but have a feeling we won’t today and Tuesday. From the image above, you can see the moderate risk stretches a touch farther south to include parts of the Red River. Some towns in the moderate risk include Wichita Falls, Jacksboro, Denton, Gainesville, and Sherman. Then we have a slight risk for DFW, southwest to Brownwood.
Timing will be from 3-10 this afternoon. Severe threats include tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. The image below shows the CAPE values this afternoon, climbing well over 3000. As we talked about in previous posts, this means there is a lot of energy in the atmosphere for severe weather. Also means we could see hail as big as baseball size or larger.
Here is one model showing isolated storms in Texas but bigger storms in Oklahoma. Remember this is just one models but gives you an idea on what the radar could look like later today.
So if you live in northwest, north central, or west central Texas, you need to stay up to date on the weather this afternoon. A weather radio is a great device to have on hand. You can also click here to download our weather alerts app for your smartphone. Never depend on outdoor sirens! Of course, we will be here covering the storms so stay tuned for updates.
Severe Weather Outlook today – Northeastern Panhandle
- Published on Monday, 22 April 2013 09:31
- Jenny Brown
- 0 Comments
The Storm Prediction Center has placed the northeastern portion of the Texas Panhandle under a Standard Risk for severe weather this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon and early evening along and in advance of an approaching cold front. Should these storms develop, there is a slight chance of one or two supercell type thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds being the primary threats. Residents in this area should keep a weather eye out this afternoon for rapidly changing conditions.
Evening summary for Tuesday’s Severe Weather Outbreak
- Published on Monday, 28 January 2013 19:56
- David Reimer
- 0 Comments
For those who don’t want to listen to my awful voice talk about Tuesday’ severe weather threat, this blog is for you. I’m going to summarize the overall threat and timing for Tuesday’s event. Keep mind that this timing could shift a few hours earlier or a few hours later depending on the speed of the dryline. For those interested, here is the video briefing that details everything I state here on the blog.
Anyway, let’s go ahead and dive into it! This graphic shows a regional overview for the affected areas for tomorrow’s event. Locations highlighted in purple are under a significant threat of severe weather with the possibility of 80+ MPH winds and strong tornadoes. This risk is just east of Texas on the current severe weather outlook and includes parts of northern Louisiana, south and central Arkansas, and western Tennessee and Mississippi. A standard and elevated risk surrounds that significant risk area.
Here is a closer-in shot of the severe weather outlook for Texas. The standard risk of severe weather, shown in orange, includes a good chunk of North Texas, part of Central Texas, and all of East Texas. A few cities included in the standard severe weather are Beaumont, College Station, Waco, the D/FW Metroplex, Graham, and Henrietta. The western part of this risk is where we expect the line of thunderstorms to begin developing by late morning towards noon.
Within the standard risk zone is an area of higher concern, highlighted in red. This area, known as the elevated risk zone, has an increased likelihood of experiencing severe weather on Tuesday. This zone generally runs along and east of a Lufkin, Athens, to McKinney line and includes all of East Texas.
Within the orange, standard risk zone, the strongest storms will be capable of producing damaging straight-line winds over 60 MPH. As the line of storms reaches the red, elevated risk zone, they should be mature and producing severe weather. The strongest storms by this point will be capable of producing destructive straight-line winds over 70 MPH. While the threat will be secondary, we cannot rule out brief tornadoes in the elevated risk zone.
The following graphics come from the 4-kilometer North American Model from earlier this afternoon and show its interpretation of what the radar will look like at each given time. Let me go ahead and say that I don’t want you thinking the radar will look exactly like what is shown below. Timing could be off by a few hours and this is only a guess. However, I think it has the right idea.
We’ll be here all night tonight and into Tuesday to provide the latest severe weather updates. Remember, we provide a heads up! If you come under a warning, tune in to your local media station for more live information. Always have more than one way to receive weather warnings. We’ll post a small update in a few hours with any changes with this evening’s weather model data.
Portions of Severe Weather Risk Upgraded; Outbreak increasingly Likely
- Published on Monday, 28 January 2013 12:02
- David Reimer
- 0 Comments
The Storm Prediction Center has issued their new severe weather outlook for Tuesday. They have upgraded a portion of the risk area to a moderate risk, also known as a significant risk of severe weather. For the moment, this significant risk area is just east of Texas and includes portions of Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. An elevated risk of severe weather does include the eastern half of North Texas, all of Northeast Texas, and a good chunk of East Texas. Surrounding the elevated risk of severe weather is the standard severe weather risk. The standard risk includes the remainder of North Texas and portions of Central and Southeast Texas.
The main concern with this severe weather event will be damaging straight-line winds with a fast-moving squall line. With very strong winds aloft, we cannot rule out a few brief tornadoes. Should any thunderstorms develop ahead of the line or by themselves, they would pose a higher tornado risk. The latest data suggests that two lines of storms may develop. One in the late morning/early afternoon and another one a few hours later in the mid to late afternoon hours. The threat of storms in NOrth Texas looks to be highest from 11 AM until 6 PM and in East Texas from 12 PM and continuing into the late evening hours.
We’ll be posting additional updates and likely one weather-nerdy discussion detailing the setup and the ingredients coming together to support the severe weather threat. A video discussion is also not out of the question.
Latest Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday
- Published on Monday, 28 January 2013 01:17
- David Reimer
- 0 Comments
The Storm Prediction Center just issued their new severe weather forecast for Tuesday. Compared to yesterday’s forecast, the southwestern edge of the severe weather risk has been removed. That is about the only noteworthy change made with this forecast. Much of North and East Texas are still under the gun on Tuesday as a fast-moving line of thunderstorms races through. The severe weather risk zone includes areas along and east from Henrietta, Graham, Eastland, Brownwood, San Saba, Marble Falls, to San Marcos line. The risk looks to stay north of Interstate 10. Inside the severe weather risk is an area where we have more concern. That area, shown in red, extends from just east of the D/FW Metroplex and includes all Northeast and the northern half of East Texas. By the time the squall line reaches the red-shaded area, we expect it to already be mature and producing damaging winds in some areas.
The main concern with this severe weather event will be damaging straight-line winds with a fast-moving squall line. With very strong winds aloft, we cannot rule out a few brief tornadoes. Should any thunderstorms develop ahead of the line or by themselves, they would pose a higher tornado risk. I’ll post a more detailed severe weather discussion later this morning.