We’ve been monitoring an area of Northeast Texas over the past hour as thunderstorm intensity has gradually increased. Two different storms have shown signs of becoming supercells with broad rotation. As we continue into the early morning hours there is an increasing probability that one or two storms will be able to strengthen into supercells. Wind shear is fairly supportive of severe weather this morning. Although the atmosphere is only marginally unstable, the strong wind shear could help compensate and allow for a few severe thunderstorms. While I don’t expect a widespread event, there is the potential for a few tornadoes this morning if thunderstorms can become organized ahead of the cold front. Over the next few hours the threat should be confined to an area highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center about an hour ago.
Later today our neighbors to the east will be facing a possible tornado outbreak with long-lived tornadoes and the possibility of widespread straight-line winds over 70 MPH. It’s not looking good out in Louisiana, eastern Arkansas, parts of Tennessee and Mississippi. If you’re heading out there for vacation or have family/friends in those areas be sure to let them know that today is a serious severe weather day.