Posts Tagged ‘Severe Weather’
Afternoon Update on Severe Weather
- Published on Saturday, 18 May 2013 14:46
- Conley Isom
- 6 Comments
A severe watch is likely for northwest Texas. As you can see from the graphic above, storms will soon develop in the red bubble. This includes areas from Abilene north to Wichita Falls, then into western Oklahoma and Kansas. Considering how energy is in the atmosphere, very large hail and isolated tornadoes will be possible. Still believe in Texas, storms will isolated.
David, Paige, and David Drummond are in southwest Kansas and will chasing the high end tornado threat. Jenny is in northwest Texas, playing the dry line. We will have updates from the team through the evening.
April Fool’s Day 2013 Severe Weather for Northwest Texas
- Published on Monday, 01 April 2013 02:00
- David Drummond
- 11 Comments
I’d like to say we’re pulling a prank you on here, but unfortunately not this time. A closed low off to our west will slowly edge our way, while the tail end of a cold front trailing from all the way up in Canada will ease southward through the southern Panhandle and South Plains area today, and should provide the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. In fact, the SPC has issued a standard risk of Severe Weather for the area.
Vertical wind profiles aren’t impressive, but they are better than they were with the activity the other day, and while surface moisture may be a bit lacking, we could still see some supercell storms emerge, with the primary threat being large hail. Some high wind gusts are also a possibility, and even a brief window of opportunity late evening for a short lived tornado or two across the eastern south plains and adjacent rolling plains, with any individual supercells that may exist during that period.
Activity should move off to the east through the southern rolling plains, likely affecting areas along and north of the I20 corridor. Activity will likely persist well into the late evening, perhaps even early morning hours as it moves east. In fact, it may well evolve into a large Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) late, as depicted by some models, as it marches toward North Texas. Once activity evolves into this mode, the threats should mostly be hail and high winds, and this could also be a nice rain producer for a lot of people!
Highest threat at this time for supercell storms appears to be along and east of US385, and probably south of a Dimmitt to Childress, TX line down to around the I20 corridor. This area will likely be refined during the day tomorrow as more data comes to light.
Northwest Texas, please check back with us, as well as have your weather radios turned on throughout the day on Monday. I’ll be out chasing in the area as well tomorrow, and you’ll be able to check right here at TexasStormChasers.com and watch live, and as always well keep you updated both here and through our social media accounts.
Severe Weather Risk Spreads East on Saturday
- Published on Friday, 29 March 2013 17:05
- David Reimer
- 16 Comments
The severe weather threat will shift east on Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a standard risk of Severe Weather. This risk includes Northwest Texas, extreme eastern sections of West Texas, and North Texas generally along and north of Interstate 20. Within this standard risk, there is a 15% chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location. Within this standard risk zone,t here is a smaller elevated risk of severe weather. An elevated risk of severe weather means severe weather is more likely, or a 30% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of your location In addition to the higher threat of severe weather, the risk of large, damaging hail increases. Hail sizes could exceed baseballs in the elevated risk zone.
There is still some question as to how widespread storm coverage will be tomorrow evening. A strong cap will be in place, which will work to prevent thunderstorm development. However, a front just north of the Red River should be a focal point for possible storm development. Should it become apparent storm coverage will be less or more than expected, this severe weather outlook could change substantially. We’ll have more later tonight once we finish our chase in Northwest Texas.
3 PM Severe Weather Update: Central Texas Destabilizing
- Published on Tuesday, 19 March 2013 14:07
- David Reimer
- 13 Comments
Not much has changed in our thinking since our update around noon. The Storm Prediction Center maintains their standard slight risk of Severe Weather for much of Central Texas, southern North Texas, and a small sliver of Southeast Texas. I’ve included the latest severe weather outlook with more specific timing for locations. Storms will begin developing by 7 PM in the western part of the risk area. Storms will then expand in both coverage and intensity as they spread east towards Interstate 35. Current indications are that the storms will be very close to I-35 by 10 PM, but don’t be surprised if they approach a bit earlier.
Temperatures have warmed quickly across Central Texas as the warm front has lifted north. Temperatures have warmed into the 70s across Central Texas with even a few 80 degree readings starting to pop up. This is causing the atmosphere to rapidly become unstable. With favorable wind shear in place, it continues to look like severe weather is a decent bet across Central Texas this evening. A few supercell thunderstorms are likely initially before storms congeal into a complex. While not all storms will be severe, the strongest storms could produce hail larger then golfballs. That’s large enough to damage vehicles, so be sure to have a way to receive warnings this evening and be ready to move your vehicles to shelter.
In summary, conditions are setting up to support severe weather in Central Texas later this afternoon and evening. The main concern will be large hail with the most severe storms, but localized areas of damaging winds are also possible. The tornado threat is low, but we can never rule out a brief tornado. We don’t expect storms to fire before 6 PM, so it looks like we’ll have a few more hours of quiet weather before we get busy this evening.
Severe Weather Coming to West Texas Saturday 02/09/2013
- Published on Friday, 08 February 2013 17:16
- David Drummond
- 0 Comments
HIGH WIND and RED FLAG WARNINGS for SOUTHWEST TEXAS through Saturday
All our recent spring-like weather is about to first get even more spring-like, and then remind us that it’s still the winter season here in West Texas. I’m a little short on time here, so I’m going to borrow heavily from our local NWS offices for some graphics here (very much appreciated guys and gals!)
Our first really spring-like day will be Saturday as a very strong upper level trough that is currently over the southwestern U.S. begins affecting West Texas weather, with a typical spring dryline setup in the eastern half of west Texas, and a windy setup west of the dryline.
Indications at this time are the dryline will setup from Amarillo to Lubbock roughly along the I27 corridor, and then further south bisecting the Permian Basin through the Midland/Odessa area.
Already surface winds have shifted around to the southeast to begin the process of advecting gulf moisture up into western Texas, however a quick look across the area, dewpoints are at this time still pretty meager in only the teens to 20s range. That however is forecast to change by Saturday, where low 50s dewpoints are expected east of the dryline all the way up to the I27 area at least, which is pretty impressive for early February.
This moisture, combined with daytime heating and more than ample vertical wind shear will produce an environment favorable for supercells, and their typical severe weather, including large hail and tornadoes.
Right now it appears the absolute most favored area for this to happen is in the southeast Panhandle, probably around the Silverton to Childress area, but storms could fire anywhere up and down the dryline.
I am however concerned about amounts of instability, or the lack thereof actually. With this much vertical wind shear available, you need strong updrafts to be able to stand up enough in it to organize rather than get sheared apart, and that may prove to be the fly in the ointment, as daytime highs east of the dryline on Saturday may struggle to reach 70F. We really need some more daytime heating to make this a more potent severe weather maker.
That said, there are many favorable parameters and we need to be aware of the potential as this evolves as we move toward Saturday and not discount the possibility too much. I feel like we’ll see some storms, perhaps even some elevated supercells (which usually turns out to hinder tornado production) so high wind and large hail I think will be the primary threats at this time.
Should higher instability happen (as one model predicts) or one or two of these storms really get organized enough to become rooted into the boundary layer, then certainly the overall severe threat increases with one of these storms, including the tornado threat. I’ll be watching this one closely over the next 48 hours as the data comes in. Altogether, this is an impressive setup for West Texas for early February for sure.
Timing is also a factor as it appears right now around 6pm may be the favored time for storms to get going, right as we loose all daytime heating. Will the forcing from this system be able to pull it off? We’ll have to see how it evolves. One of the models I’m looking at generates some line segment storms along the dryline, then evolves that into a squall line the further east it gets that goes on to affect most of the rest of the State to our east. This of course increases rain chances for anyone east of the dryline, with any activity that gets going making its way eastward.
Back west, high winds will be the story. High Wind Warnings already posted for the typical high terrain areas of the Guadalupe Mountains and mountain areas of Southwest Texas.
Winds around 45 gusting to 60 mph around the Guadalupe Pass area and gusting to around 50 through the Ft. Davis/Alpine areas. Areas over 6000ft especially at risk for higher winds. Wind Advisories are also out for the surrounding areas and even into southeast NM where winds will gust into the 45mph range. Of course blowing dust also a concern, especially north of I20 and west of the dryline. North/South travelers in high profile vehicles will have hazardous driving conditions, as well as sudden low visibility situations near open fields and construction areas.
Fire Weather is also a concern, as it typically is when things are dry and the winds are up in west Texas. Red Flag Warnings have been posted across all of southwest Texas, southern and eastern New Mexico as well as a Fire Weather Watch for areas west of the dryline in the western Panhandle/South Plains. Some of this wind will carry over into Sunday as well, althought not as strong, but will still hold over some fire weather concerns.
If all this weather isn’t exciting enough for you, another low pressure system will be heading our way the beginning of the week, along with some colder temperatures and plenty of moisture, which could bring some snow, perhaps even some heavy snow to northwest Texas…especially in the Panhandle. Still plenty of uncertainties, but that is your heads up, and I’ll have more on that as the time gets closer.