Tag Archives: Severe Weather

HIGH RISK for Dangerous Tornadoes in Southwest Arkansas

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a HIGH RISK of Severe Weather including the potential for life-threatening, long-track tornadoes for much of Southwest and Central Arkansas this evening. This risk also includes about five square miles of Northeast Texas near Texarkana. This is the highest severe weather risk level issued and is reserved for the most severe events. In fact they only issue a High Risk one to two times a year on average. That should convey that the forecast confidence is very high in multiple strong, long-track tornadoes across Southwest/Central Arkansas this evening. An enhanced tornado risk does extend into Northeast Texas along and east of a Paris-Tyler-Carthage line where a Tornado Watch has already been issued. Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along the dryline very near I-35E and these storms will move east and intensify this afternoon and evening capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds as they move into East Texas. Again, the highest risk for strong to violent long-track tornadoes will be in Southwest and Central Arkansas where residents need to be very weather aware tonight.

2014-04-27_15-11-21

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

VALID 272000Z – 281200Z

…THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AR…

…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF AR…NERN
TX…FAR ERN OK AND SRN MO…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID AND
LOWER MO VALLEY SWD INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY AND
ARKLATEX…

…SUMMARY…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ARKANSAS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
SOUTHERN MISSOURI…EASTERN OKLAHOMA…AND EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE GREATEST TORNADO RISK WILL BE
CENTERED ON ARKANSAS…WHERE A FEW STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE…A BAND OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI AND IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAMAGING WINDS…LARGE HAIL…AND A FEW TORNADOES. MORE ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

…ADDED HIGH RISK TO AR IN ANTICIPATION OF SUPERCELLS FORMING
UPSTREAM OVER NERN TX AND ERN OK…WHICH WILL MATURE AS THEY MOVE
INTO AR WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS…

MUCH OF AR…FAR NERN TX AND SRN MO STILL APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST
THREAT AREA FOR TORNADOES. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS SIGNS OF CU BECOMING GRADUALLY DEEPER WITHIN THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS NERN TX…SWRN AR AND NRN LA.
SUPERCELLS WILL EVENTUALLY ERUPT ACROSS THESE AREAS…WITH STRONG
TORNADOES POSSIBLE AS WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL.

Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather this Afternoon/Evening

The new severe weather outlook for today is out and as expected we still have an enhanced risk of severe weather across the Eastern Texas Panhandle and Northwest Texas. That is where confidence is highest in both of storm coverage and severity of the storms. Canadian, Shamrock, Childress, Paducah, and Vernon are a few towns in the enhanced risk zone. Surrounding the enhanced risk zone is our standard possible risk zone where only one or two storms are expected but they could be just as severe as those in the enhanced risk zone. Borger, Silverton, Post, Big Spring, Sweetwater, Abilene, Stamford, Seymour, Graham, and Wichita Falls are a few cities in the possible risk zone.

The strongest supercells will likely produce hail larger than the size of baseballs and winds above 60 MPH. Any dominant supercells could possibly produce one or two tornadoes at or after sunset as surface temperatures fall along with cloud bases (mainly in the enhanced risk zone). Large hail will be the most significant threat today by far.

2014-04-23_0-51-21

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 231200Z – 241200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS

..SUMMARY

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD…WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

..SYNOPSIS

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
EJECT NEWD TOWARDS THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NRN PLAINS. AN
UPSTREAM IMPULSE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE BROADER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH …REACHING THE SRN
ROCKIES THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE…A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE CNTRL HIGH/NRN PLAINS WITH A DRYLINE MIXING INTO SW NEB TO W TX
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESSIVELY OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE
AND REACH THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS ON THU MORNING.

..CNTRL/SRN PLAINS

THE PLUME OF RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES
OF 1.25-1.50 INCH PER 00Z RAOBS AND GPS DATA/ WILL LIKELY EMANATE
NWD FROM DEEP S TX WITHIN A N/S-ORIENTED CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE INFLUX
WILL BE RELATIVELY MODEST /ESPECIALLY WITH NRN EXTENT/…SURFACE DEW
POINTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S N OF THE RED RIVER WITH LOWER 60S
ACROSS CNTRL TX.

LATEST EXPECTATIONS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK WITH TWO
GENERAL REGIMES FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AMIDST QUITE STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO NRN
KS…STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
BENEATH MODERATE-STRONG 500-MB SWLYS OWING TO THE GLANCING INFLUENCE
OF THE NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH…A FEW SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM
PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL. WITH LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND
UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT…THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS. SEVERE
HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING…WITH INTENSITY WANING
OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE MO VALLEY.

FARTHER S…SCATTERED DISCRETE TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE
LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSIST OF
HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT. LARGE HAIL /A FEW SIGNIFICANT/ AND ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. DURING THE
EVENING…LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME QUITE ENLARGED AS FLOW
STRENGTHENS. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES MAY BE REALIZED BETWEEN
00-03Z ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF NEAR 60 DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS
INVOF W OK/NW TX. STILL…QUALITY OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
A LIMITING FACTOR TO A MORE ROBUST TORNADO RISK. WITH
TIME…COALESCING OF UPDRAFTS AND PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY YIELD
A SMALL MCS MOVING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND N TX WITH SEVERE
HAIL/WIND RISKS SUBSIDING EARLY THU.

12:45 AM Severe Weather Update

We’ve been monitoring an area of Northeast Texas over the past hour as thunderstorm intensity has gradually increased. Two different storms have shown signs of becoming supercells with broad rotation. As we continue into the early morning hours there is an increasing probability that one or two storms will be able to strengthen into supercells. Wind shear is fairly supportive of severe weather this morning. Although the atmosphere is only marginally unstable, the strong wind shear could help compensate and allow for a few severe thunderstorms. While I don’t expect a widespread event, there is the potential for a few tornadoes this morning if thunderstorms can become organized ahead of the cold front. Over the next few hours the threat should be confined to an area highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center about an hour ago.

111

Later today our neighbors to the east will be facing a possible tornado outbreak with long-lived tornadoes and the possibility of widespread straight-line winds over 70 MPH. It’s not looking good out in Louisiana, eastern Arkansas, parts of Tennessee and Mississippi. If you’re heading out there for vacation or have family/friends in those areas be sure to let them know that today is a serious severe weather day.

12-21-2013 1-21-43 AM

Weather Roundup – Friday December 20th

Good morning and happy Friday!  A lot to talk about in today’s forecast, so let’s start with the cold front.  As of now, the front is currently draped from just east of Wichita Falls down through the Lubbock area.  It should make its way through the north central Texas/DFW area around noon and down past Waco by early this evening.  Here it will become quasi-stationary waiting for a secondary push of cold air that will arrive late Saturday/early Sunday.  Temperatures behind the front will quickly drop into the 30-upper 40’s range with a breezy north wind.

FWD Front Graphicast

Graphic courtesy of the NWS office in Ft. Worth, TX

Front 6pm this evening

Front Noon Saturday

Severe Weather Chances

The Storm Prediction Center has placed a skinny swath of the state under a risk of severe weather for late tonight and into Saturday morning, and slightly elevated risk of severe weather for portions of east and southeast Texas early Saturday morning.  Most of the activity should remain sub-severe, but the parameters are in place for more significant storm development along and ahead of the front if there is sufficient forcing to break the atmospheric capping inversion.  Any storm that manages to form ahead of the frontal boundary overnight and into tomorrow morning, especially across portions of south central and southeast Texas, will have the potential to become severe with hail, high winds and possibly a tornado.  Since this will mainly be an overnight/early morning event, please make sure you have your weather radios on tonight, or have your smartphone turned on and not on “silence” mode so that you are able to receive weather warnings should any be posted for your area.  These storms will be moving quickly…in excess of 50+mph in some cases, so if a Tornado Warning is issued for your location, take action immediately.

SPC David Graphic

SPC David Graphic Saturday

HGX Graphicast overnight Storms

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for Panhandle

Yes, we’re talking possible tornados in one part of the state and snow in another part.  Typical Texas weather!  A portion of the Texas panhandle was placed under a Winter Weather Advisory beginning at midnight tonight and lasting through 6pm on Saturday.  A wintry mix of precipitation is expected to develop overnight and switch over to all snow during the day on Saturday.  While it does look a bit marginal whether or not snow will develop, there’s still a chance…and it could end up impacting travel on Saturday across this region.  Folks planning to head out on Saturday for the holidays will need to be flexible with their travel plans should the roadways be impacted by this event.  As always, you can check the TXDot interactive map www.drivetexas.org/full for the latest on road conditions in your area.

Winter Weather Advisory Lub Graphicast

RAIN CHANCES

As mentioned in yesterday evening’s update, this will be a widespread rain event for most of the state.  Most of the rain will fall during the overnight hours tonight and into tomorrow morning.  The heaviest amounts are expected to fall from west central Texas up into northeast Texas where some folks may receive up to 3 inches by the end of the event.  Here’s a look at the latest precipitation forecast and a look at a few forecast graphics for 6am Saturday through Noon on Saturday as the rain and storms are moving east into Louisiana.  Continue to check back for updates later today and tonight for the latest updates!

QPF thru Saturday Evening

6am Saturday

6am Saturday Rain

Noon Saturday 

Noon Saturday rain

Some Severe Weather Possible Thursday Evening

To say that the next few days will be busy in the weather department is an understatement. I know many of you are wondering about the potential for winter weather on Friday and we’ll have much more on that a bit later. However, before we reintroduce winter to Texas, we have a few other matters to look over. The main topic of this discussion will be the potential for a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms on Thursday across Northwest and North Texas. The latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has the northwest portion of North Texas in a standard risk of severe weather.

11-20-2013 5-59-46 PM

The main time-frame for the chance of a few strong to marginally severe storms will be from 4 PM to 11 PM (based on the latest data). The main lifting mechanism that will help showers and storms develop tomorrow evening will be the approaching arctic cold front. Temperatures behind the front will be in the 30s, but the airmass ahead of the front will still have temperatures in the 60s and 70s along with plenty of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

11-20-2013 6-18-08 PM

By Thursday afternoon, the atmosphere will have plenty of juice in it with surface-based instability values exceeding 1,500 J/Kg (joules per kilogram). That indicates the atmosphere is moderately unstable and is capable of supporting stronger updrafts in thunderstorms. That’s why our main concern for the stronger storms tomorrow evening will be the potential for large hail. As the cold front quickly moves southeast, it will undercut these thunderstorms (essentially cutting off the warmer surface air). Storms will still have energy to work with above the cooler air, but at least they should weaken a bit and become more of our garden-variety storms.

11-20-2013 6-26-16 PM

This is a simulated radar image from one of our high-resolution weather models. As you can see, it shows rain and a few thunderstorms extending across North Texas and in proximity of the cold front. A few strong storms with penny to nickel size hail will be possible with the strongest storms. As the cold front pushes south of Interstate 20, thunderstorms should begin to weaken. This will not be a significant or widespread severe event, but a few hail storms will be possible. Our evening weather models will begin running shortly and we’ll post an update if data suggests any changes to the forecast. Otherwise, we’ll have our next update on Thursday’s storms after midnight.

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