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Posts Tagged ‘Sherman’

12 PM Severe Weather Update

07 April 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

This graphic shows the chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location this afternoon and early this evening. The orange line you see is the zone where the storm prediction center has placed a standard risk of severe weather, meaning there is a 15 percent chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any given location within that zone. The risk extends all the way from Southwest Texas northeastward into western sections of North Texas and Southern Oklahoma. Midland, San Angelo, Abiliene, Vernon, Wichita Falls, Decatur, Denton, Sherman, and Bonham are just a few cities included in this risk. The timeframe will be from 4 PM to 10 PM.

Today’s severe weather threat will be in the form of large hail (quarters to half dollar size) and downburst winds around 60 MPH in the strongest storms. In addition, localized flooding could become an issue later tonight when storms are expected to become widespread. The severe weather threat (hail and wind threats) are expected to remain more isolated and a widespread severe weather issue is not expected. Tornadoes are not expected today.

Severe Weather Outlook for Saturday, April 7

06 April 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

Saturday's Severe Weather Outlook

This graphic shows the probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any given point (such as a house) on Saturday, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. The standard severe weather risk, a 15 percent chance of severe weather occuring within 25 miles of any given point, is in effect from Southwest Texas northeastward into Southern Oklahoma. This risk includes Texas cities such as San Angelo, Midland, Big Spring, Abilene, Vernon, Wichita Falls, Weatherford, Decatur, Denton, Gainesville, Sherman. In addition, Southern Oklahoma is also in the standard risk. Surrounding the standard risk, a lower risk of severe weather encompasses more of Texas.

Saturday’s setup will be one with moderate instability and low wind shear. A cold front will be moving south across the affected regions on Saturday. During the peak heating hours in the afternoon, some storms may become marginally severe as the cold front provides atmospheric lift. The primary threat on Saturday will be ‘coin-size’ hail (nickel to quarters) and a few downbursts capable of producing winds around 60 MPH. Because of very weak low level wind shear and the overall lack of any mesoscale features capable of enhancing wind shear (as what occurred on Tuesday), the tornado threat should be low.

I’m actually sitting in Philadelphia International Airport right now waiting to board my flight back to Dallas. I was originally scheduled to fly out tomorrow afternoon, but decided to push it up to avoid the flight delays on Saturday along with possibly chasing if the setup warrants.

Standard Severe Risk introduced for Red River

21 March 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

Severe Weather Risks for Monday

The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a standard risk of severe weather for this afternoon and early evening across portions of North Texas and Southern Oklahoma. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain low, but a very cold atmosphere aloft will allow for instability to develop by this afternoon. Wind shear is not overly strong, but is favorable for organized thunderstorms. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated, but storms that do form will have the potential to produce large hail and damaging downburst winds. The tornado threat is low. I’m sitting in Sherman having lunch, and then will be heading out to Gainesville. Be sure to join us for live video this afternoon!

Significant Severe Weather Episode Likely across Texas Today

19 March 2012 David Reimer 4 Comments

Chance of severe weather within 25 miles of any given point

The Storm Prediction Center has just upgraded much of Central and North Texas from an elevated/enhanced risk of severe weather to a significant risk of severe weather for Monday. Within the red outline, there is now a 45% chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of any given point. That means residents in those areas have almost a half in half chance of seeing severe weather close by today.

Several rounds of severe thunderstorms are likely today and all modes of severe weather are possible. That means tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging straight-line winds are likely in some storms today. Flash flooding will become a big problem by Monday Night. Significant severe weather is also possible, meaning there could be a few strong tornadoes and very large, damaging hail.

Please note that several large metro areas are included in this risk. The significant severe weather risk includes San Antonio, Austin, Waco, D/FW, Gainesville, Sherman, Tyler, just to name a few. This is easily one of our most widespread severe weather risks that this part of the state has seen in a few years. Please don’t think just because it’s March that we cannot have severe weather. It appears that theory is going to be shattered by later today. We will be out chasing later today.

Severe Weather Outbreak on Sunday and Monday (Includes MUCH of Texas!)

15 March 2012 David Reimer 4 Comments

Severe Weather Risks for Sunday and Monday

This graphic shows the severe weather outlooks for Sunday (Day 4 red colors) and Monday (Day 5 purple colors). Unlike other graphics where I show you the probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any given point, these are different. Because these are four and five days out, only significant severe weather threats are outlined. Thus, anyone in one of these risks has a 30 percent chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of any given point.

On Sunday, areas from Fort Stockton, Texas on Interstate 10 northward through West Texas and the Texas Panhandle, north into Nebraska are in the elevated risk of severe weather. By Monday, that risk shifts eastward and includes areas generally along and on either side of Interstate 35. This risk does include large metropolitan areas such as San Antonio, Austin, Waco, Dallas, Fort Worth, Wichita Falls, Sherman, then northward into Oklahoma with Ardmore, Oklahoma City, and Tulsa. Those are just a few of the largest cities and do not include the hundreds of smaller towns.

Understand that we can’t be specific about the risks and timing at this point beyond what we have already said, but know that risks are not outlined this far in advance unless the threat is rather widespread and significant. Residents should be aware there is the potential for a severe weather outbreak with all modes of severe weather possible on Sunday and Monday. We’ll have more details in a meteorological discussion this evening, but this is the time to prepare for potential severe weather. Do you have a plan? 

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