While we considered chasing today (Thursday), other obligations kept us at home. Tomorrow, however, may be a different story. Both David and I appear to have free schedules, and it is looking very worth the 11 hour drive to northern Iowa at the moment.

Based off of the 00z and 06z NAM runs, the area near Fort Dodge, IA, looks very favorable for tornadic supercells tomorrow afternoon. It may be a bit hazy with the atmosphere loaded with moisture from top to bottom, but any more discrete storms will be in an environment characterized by extreme CAPE (4000+ J/Kg), strong veering with height as well as increasing wind speeds, and nicely backed low level winds. In fact, the 06Z NAM has a 1 kilometer EHI of more than 6 in northern Iowa at 00z. In addition to this, LCLs will be very low, so at least isolated tornado potential appears very high at the moment. Because there is still plenty of time for this setup to change, we will not pull the trigger yet. But assuming it continues to look fairly similar to how it does now, David and I will be in Iowa in less than 36 hours!

Another quick note, Iowa is currently enduring major flooding. Fortunately this is something we have had to deal with before, but we could still encounter problems with road closures. But that won’t stop us from doing our best! Check back soon for more updates on this upcoming chase!

- Connor McCrorey

Click for larger image