Posts Tagged ‘supercell’

Severe Weather Outbreak Expected in Texas Today

Published on Tuesday, 21 May 2013 01:39

David Reimer

164 Comments

After a devastating tornado in Moore, Oklahoma yesterday, I realize many folks are on edge about severe weather. I wish there was going to be blue skies and we could simply move on, but alas, mother nature has different plans. The threat of significant severe weather shifts south into Texas today. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk (shown as the SIGNIFICANT RISK) on our graphics for today. A significant risk of severe weather means there is a nearly 1 in 2 chance that severe weather will occur close to your location. The D/FW Metroplex is included in this significant risk and that is most definitely a concern. Waco, Killeen (Fort Hood), Temple, Corsicana, Tyler, Longview, Texarkana, Clarksville, Paris, and Bonham are a few cities included in this significant risk of severe weather.

Lets talk about threats depending on storm mode. In a line of thunderstorms, the main severe weather threats will be damaging winds over 75 MPH and golfball size hail with a weak tornado threat. Any discrete thunderstorms (supercells) will have a higher tornado threat, including the possibility of strong tornadoes. Baseball size hail and damaging winds would be very likely with any supercell as well. The highest tornado threat will be in areas where boundaries are in place. The Moore, OK tornado was enhanced by a boundary left in place by storms on Sunday. The tornado threat will not be extremely high today, but is definitely enhanced and a greater concern than most other severe weather days.

Folks located in the red-shaded zone are in an elevated risk of severe weather. In this area, there is a 1 in 3 chance of severe weather occurring near your location. Like the significant risk zone, the hazards are nearly the same, but not as widespread. In a line of thunderstorms, the main severe weather threats will be damaging winds over 70 MPH and golfball size hail. Any discrete thunderstorms (supercells) will have a higher tornado threat, including the possibility of strong tornadoes. Baseball size hail and damaging winds would be very likely with any supercell as well. Finally, those located in the orange-shaded zone are included in a standard risk of severe weather. Those in this area have a nearly 1 in 6 chance of having severe weather occur near their location. Hazards in this area include large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps even a tornado. The severe weather could be just as significant in this area as the higher risk areas, but in less frequency.

Here is another graphic displaying the risk today.

The threat will likely begin developing after noon (early afternoon) across the west and continue through the evening in the east. Be sure to check the National Weather Service in Fort Worth for timing details later this morning.

There is no reason to be scared today. Being scared does no good and will probably do more harm than good. Simply understand there is a sizeable severe weather risk today. We’re not 100 percent sure about all the elements, but there is enough confidence that we could have issues to share this information with you. If we end up having a line of storms, the tornado threat will be lower. If we end up getting discrete thunderstorms, we’re going to have a higher tornado risk today. Either way, large hail and damaging winds are a good bet today. Have a way to receive weather warnings and be ready to enact your severe weather safety plan if you come under a warning. Don’t be scared, be prepared!