




Texas Storm Chasers’ David Reimer and Jenny Brown spent the afternoon taking photos of pop-up thunderstorms along with Bellevue, Texas before a cell finally took hold and became severe just before sunset in Jack County, Texas. The duo intercepted the severe storm in Perrin, TX where they observed power flashes, tree damage, and measured a 54 MPH wind gust.
Here is the latest severe weather outlook issued for the evening/overnight hours from the Storm Prediction Center. The standard severe weather risk is defined by the yellow color with the enhanced zone defined by the red. There is a low severe weather threat in the brown shaded zone.
Brown Shaded Zone: Low severe weather chance (5% chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location tonight.)
Yellow Shaded Zone: Standard severe weather chance (15% chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location tonight.)
Red Shaded Zone: Elevated severe weather chance (30% chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location tonight.) This is where the highest tornado potential is also located.
A Tornado Watch has been posted for much of South Central Texas until 3 AM. The highest tornado threat should remain along and south of Interstate 10, but severe weather is possible across all of the watch.
In addition, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for much of the Texas Hill Country and South Texas. It is my belief that flooding will become the biggest issue overnight. We’ll post updates as warranted on our Facebook and Twitter pages, along with our blog.
This graphic shows the chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location today and tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a standard “slight” risk of severe weather, shown by the yellow shading, for areas along and south of Interstate 10 from Fort Stockton eastward to San Antonio, then southeast to El Campo, Texas. Within this yellow shaded zone, there is a 15 percent chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of your location. In the brown shaded zone, there is a low chance of severe weather, meaning a 5 percent chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of your location.
Brown Shaded Zone: “Low” chance of severe weather (5 percent chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location.)
Yellow Shaded Zone: Standard Risk of severe weather (15 percent chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location.)
Primary Hazards with the strongest storms: Golfball size hail and damaging straight-line winds over 60 MPH
Second Hazards with the strongest storms: Brief tornadoes
The risk of Flooding will increase later this evening with a Flash Flood Watch already posted for much of South Texas.
This is the latest five day rainfall accumulation forecast released moments ago by the Hydrometerlogical Prediction Center. This graphic shows anticipated rain totals from 7 PM this evening through 7 PM on Monday. Notice how much of the state, with the sad exception of the Texas Panhandle, looks to receive at least half an inch of rain over the coming days. The heaviest rain totals are expected to be located from the Texas Hill Country and points south and east. In fact, we may be dealing with flash flooding in some areas by the weekend as tributaries become filled. We’ll keep an eye on that possibility, but overall it looks like we’re in for a multi-inch rain event!