Happy hump day everyone! Chances for severe weather will exist once again today across parts of the eastern panhandle down into the rolling plains of west central Texas. The Storm Prediction Center has this portion of the state under a Risk for severe weather this afternoon and evening, including an enhanced risk for large hail, greater than 2 inches, within the black hatched area on the graphic below. Early morning virga showers across the panhandle at this time will probably help to somewhat cool the capping inversion by early afternoon which may help to enhance instability values somewhat over the area. At any rate, storms are expected to begin firing up across the eastern panhandle by around 4pm-ish this afternoon and move east into western Oklahoma. Eventually, a line of scattered supercell thunderstorms is expected to stretch from the TX/OK border down through Childress and south towards Snyder/Sweetwater and near San Angelo. The main threats with the storms that develop this evening will be large hail (some greater than 2 inches in diameter), damaging winds and frequent lightning. The tornado threat is low, but non-zero for areas in and around Childress and up towards Altus and Elk City, OK. Folks in these areas this afternoon need to keep a weather eye to the sky and have a way to receive weather warnings if you’re out and about this afternoon.
There’s still some uncertainty as to how well the line of storms will hold together overnight. If they do, there is a chance they will approach the DFW metro area by the pre-dawn hours; however, they will be much less intense with only a minimal threat of any severe weather. All that to say, don’t be surprised if you hear a few rumbles of thunder across north central Texas before dawn tomorrow!
Elsewhere, just warm with increasingly breezy conditions across mainly the northern and western portions of the state by this afternoon. A cold front will drop down into the state overnight and into tomorrow but will have minimal impacts on temperatures.
Better chances for severe weather across the state arrives on Saturday and into Sunday as a strong low pressure system arrives from the west. This is shaping up to be one of the more dynamic storm systems we’ve seen so far this season, so we’re looking at multiple days of severe weather chances Saturday and Sunday, with the best chances residing on Sunday across parts of north central to northeast Texas. Stay tuned for more details on that as we get closer to the weekend!