Really no change to our thoughts from last night on the potential for severe weather across parts of north and northeast Texas this afternoon. Storms firing up this afternoon/evening across north central and northeast Texas will rely heavily on a few factors coming together just right. I’ll discuss those in just a minute. Right now we’ve have a large band of light rain and sprinkles stretched from down near Del Rio up through Brownwood and up into the DFW metro area. This large area of light rain is expected to move into eastern portions of the state by mid-day with skies clearing behind it. Afterwards, the skies should clear out as the band of rain moves east and temps will warm up nicely between it and the dryline.
As for what has to happen to produce storms this afternoon. 1. We need to have instability…and we should. Forecast models are showing we could be tapping into roughly 2,000 joules per kilogram of atmospheric energy by this afternoon..especially if the skies clear out and we have a good amount of surface heating. 2. We need to have moisture. We have that already in place with dewpoints in the 60′s expected ahead of the dryline this afternoon. 3. We have to have forcing for upward movement, or “ascent” as it’s called. That’s where it will get tricky. A piece of upper level energy has to arrive at just the right time in order to make storms happen…and this is where we need a crystal ball that we simply don’t have. Local forecasters are continuing to evaluate the latest data sets as they roll in and will continue to adjust the forecast throughout the afternoon hours. For now, they’ve left the possibility of strong to severe storms in place. At any rate, stay tuned for more updates and have a way to receive weather warnings if you’re out and about today! No need to panic…just be prepared!