Good morning and happy Wednesday! An active weather day is expected across much of the state with heavy showers expected across central and northeastern regions, and severe thunderstorms possible later this afternoon across north central, northwest and west central parts of the state. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a large portion of the state under a risk of severe weather today…mainly for the later afternoon/early evening timeframe. The confidence in severe thunderstorm development is not high however, and is dependent upon several factors including the development of widespread rain and associated cloud cover which could limit instability. Still, with the strong trough moving in from the west today and its associated mid to upper level winds further enhancing lift this afternoon and overnight, there may be enough “oomph” to get something going…especially if we get some clearing on the western and southwestern fringes of the large blob of rain and we can get some surface heating. The main threat with any of the stronger storms that develops will be high downburst type winds, hail and lightning. We’ll continue to monitor this risk and keep you up to date throughout the day.
The main weather story today will be the threat for heavy rain and possible flash flooding across our eastern/northeastern regions today. The precipitation forecast graphic below really tells the story with rainfall totals of 2-5 inches possible across parts of northeast Texas…with some areas receiving up to 6 inches. Pretty much all the counties east of the DFW metro all the way to the Louisiana/Arkansas border are under a Flash Flood watch through tomorrow morning. Flash Flood Watches are also in effect for central Texas in and around the Austin/San Antonio region where 1-3 inches of rainfall with localized 5+ inch amounts are possible today. As always, please be careful driving in flood prone areas today…especially later today after dark. This rain is expected to continue through the night and into tomorrow before slowly clearing from northwest to southeast on Thursday with the passage of the cold front. Right now it looks like the front will pass through north central Texas by around noon tomorrow and be through southeast Texas tomorrow night.
Accumulated Precipitation Forecast through 7am Thursday
Here’s a look at the highs and lows expected today. Pleasant temps over the panhandle…warm and breezy along the south Texas coast…with temps in between highly impacted by rain and thunderstorm development later this afternoon.
Stay tuned throughout today…I’m sure we’ll be quite busy! Be safe everyone!