Posts Tagged ‘Thunderstorms’
Rain & Storms Return to the Forecast
- Published on Sunday, 17 February 2013 17:06
- Jenny Brown
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We’re in for a pretty active week with several low pressure disturbances swinging through the state. The first disturbance will arrive on Monday bringing a cold front and chances of rain mainly for eastern portions of the state. Spotty areas of showers should begin to develop in central Texas mainly east of the I-35 corridor by early Monday afternoon and spread northeast across south central Texas and up into the DFW metro area and eastward. A squall line of storms is expected to develop ahead of the approaching cold front southeast of the DFW area towards sunset, then move south southeast towards Houston late tomorrow evening and overnight. A few of the storms could be strong and contain hail and damaging winds of 60mph. Below is a look at the position of the trough around noon on Monday with its upper level winds in the range of 50 – 70knots. Below that is a simulated radar grab of potential squall line position as of 8pm Monday evening.
Wednesday, a stronger system approaches the state bringing a Pacific cold front with it and better chances for more widespread rain coverage for central to northern parts of the state. Showers and storms will begin to move up from south central Texas during the day Wednesday overspreading much of the area. The eastern panhandle and northwest Texas will be under the gun Wednesday evening and overnight into Thursday for the development of severe storms. Once again, high winds and damaging hail will be the primary threats with this system. Below is a look of the position of the low at about Midnight going into Thursday with its upper level winds in excess of 55kts driving through the panhandle and northwest Texas. The simulated radar grab below is from the same time period and shows a line of strong storms to develop over the eastern panhandle and into northwest Texas. This line will continue to build and travel east across north Texas during the wee morning hours on Thursday, so have your Weather Radios on and be prepared to be awakened by a few thunderboomers! We’ll continue to keep you updated during the week, plus another chance of rain returning next Sunday!
Latest Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday
- Published on Monday, 28 January 2013 01:17
- David Reimer
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The Storm Prediction Center just issued their new severe weather forecast for Tuesday. Compared to yesterday’s forecast, the southwestern edge of the severe weather risk has been removed. That is about the only noteworthy change made with this forecast. Much of North and East Texas are still under the gun on Tuesday as a fast-moving line of thunderstorms races through. The severe weather risk zone includes areas along and east from Henrietta, Graham, Eastland, Brownwood, San Saba, Marble Falls, to San Marcos line. The risk looks to stay north of Interstate 10. Inside the severe weather risk is an area where we have more concern. That area, shown in red, extends from just east of the D/FW Metroplex and includes all Northeast and the northern half of East Texas. By the time the squall line reaches the red-shaded area, we expect it to already be mature and producing damaging winds in some areas.
The main concern with this severe weather event will be damaging straight-line winds with a fast-moving squall line. With very strong winds aloft, we cannot rule out a few brief tornadoes. Should any thunderstorms develop ahead of the line or by themselves, they would pose a higher tornado risk. I’ll post a more detailed severe weather discussion later this morning.
Expanded Severe Weather Risk on Tuesday; Concern Increasing
- Published on Sunday, 27 January 2013 03:12
- David Reimer
- 0 Comments
After analyzing weather model data this morning it is still looking like we’ll end up being busy on Tuesday. As you can already tell by stepping outside, rich moisture has already pushed into the state from the Gulf of Mexico. With our next storm system not due until Tuesday the atmosphere will have plenty of time to moisten up. Not only will the moisture be in place to support thunderstorms, the storm system arriving on Tuesday looks to be supportive of organized thunderstorms. Combine the moist, unstable atmosphere with a strong storm system and you have a recipe for severe thunderstorms. A line of thunderstorms will form during the late-morning hours on Tuesday and gain strength as it pushes eastward during the afternoon hours. With the convective mode expected to be linear, or a line of thunderstorms, the threat for tornadoes will be reduced. If we had discrete thunderstorms then the risk for tornadoes would increase. Data continues to support a fast-moving squall line along a cold front. The main concern with a squall line is straight-line winds, but brief tornadoes are certainly possible as well.
The main uncertainty is how far west will this line of storms develop in Texas and how long will it take for them to organize into something of concern. Compared to yesterday, this zone of concern has been extended further south and west to include more of the state. The orange zone is where we believe severe thunderstorms are possible. Parts of North and Northeast Texas are included in an elevated risk of severe storms. Within this area, we have confidence that severe thunderstorms are more likely with a fast-moving squall line. Don’t pay too much attention to the differences in colors right now. If you’re in or close to the severe risk area, plan on having a way to receive weather information on Tuesday and be sure to check back on Monday for the latest forecast!
In case you were wondering, Texas is only part of a larger severe weather event on Tuesday with a severe weather outbreak becoming more probable across the Mid-South and even closer to the Great Lakes. This definitely could be the first major severe weather outbreak to strike in 2013. Texas is on the southern edge of this threat. Here is the severe weather outlook for the affected areas for Tuesday.
Tornado Watch issued for sliver of East Texas into Louisiana
- Published on Saturday, 12 January 2013 23:40
- David Reimer
- 0 Comments
One storm did become severe about an hour ago south of Longview because of hail potential. That storm was north of the cold front and thus only had a hail threat. A broken line of thunderstorms has begun to develop along the cold front in extreme East Texas into Lousaina. Since these storms are along and ahead of the cold front, they still have access to an unstable airmass. Thus we will have to watch for any storms that can become sustained. I still believe the majority of this threat is east of Texas, but we have seen some storms try to become organized in the past 30 minutes as storms moved into Louisiana.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 4
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI
SMALL PART OF EAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 1130 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CST.
TORNADOES…HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 75 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA TO 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF OXFORD
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA NACOGDOCHES SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY
9:30 PM Texas Weather Update
- Published on Saturday, 12 January 2013 21:25
- David Reimer
- 0 Comments
East Texas into South Texas
At 9 PM the leading edge of the cold front was along a line from Nacogdoches, Crockett, Huntsville, Brenham, La Grange, San Antonio, to Eagle Pass. North of this line, temperatures quickly fall and the atmosphere dries out. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms extend from Longview southwest to College Station. Additional showers may develop along the front as it continues to push south and east over the next few hours. Severe weather is not expected.
North Texas
Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm continue over the D/FW metroplex. Cold air aloft is allowing for small hail to make it to the surface even with weak showers. No severe weather or winter weather is expected. Temperatures will continue to fall into the 20s and 30s.
Texas Panhandle
Snow continues to fall in Grey and Roberts county. So far, accumulation has been between 1 and 3 inches. Snow should begin to taper off within a few hours. Temperatures across the Panhandle will continue to fall into the teens with wind chill values in the single digits.
National Radar Composite
Rain Totals: Next 7 Days
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