Tag Archives: Thunderstorms

Severe Weather Risk added for Saturday

Friday, 11 January 2013 14:08
David Reimer
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Good afternoon! Since my laptop is off being repaired, I’ll be trying to post using an iPad for the first time. If something is messed up, I’ll work at making improving my mobile posting abilities.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued their standard slight risk of severe thunderstorms (the yellow outline) for a good chunk of east and southeast Texas. Those inside the risk have a fifteen percent chance of having severe weather occur within 25 miles of their location. Based on the current data, the primary severe weather risk looks to be downburst winds over 60 MPH with the strongest storms. This does not look to be a widespread threat. The most likely area to receive thunderstorms on Saturday is Northeast Texas into Arkansas tomorrow afternoon into the early evening hours.

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11:30 PM Situation Update for Texas

Tuesday, 08 January 2013 23:32
David Reimer
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Widespread rain is occurring across much of North Texas, the Hill country, and portions of the Texas coastline. This activity will continue to strengthen over the next few hours and heavy rainfall will become likely over many areas. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of producing small hail, damaging winds, and frequent lightning. In addition, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect or all of Texas along and east of I-35 from Fort Worth to Austin. As thunderstorms begin to move over the same areas the ground will become saturated. Some flooding will be possible by Wednesday. Obviously areas that are low-lying or susceptible to flooding will have a greater risk.

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Instability values remain low across the state, but they have increased a bit across South Texas. A few severe storms with damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible overnight. The threat is definitely secondary to the concern about flooding.

 

7:30 PM Severe Weather Update for Rio Grande Valley; Forecast BUST!

Tuesday, 08 January 2013 19:36
David Reimer
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We’ve been forecasting severe weather for much of the Rio Grande Valley and South Texas for a few days now. However, as mother nature always likes to remind us, things can change quickly. Before I go nerdy and explain what is going on, let me say that the severe weather threat for the Rio Grande Valley has diminished, but we could still see a few strong storms overnight.

0118This graphic shows current instability values across South Texas. As you can see, the highest instability values remain off-shore of the RGV and South Texas. Instability values over the Rio Grande Valley are minimal, but there are no storms right now so that isn’t an issue. If there were storms right now, they would have great difficulty gaining strength due to low instability values.

Weather balloon information from Brownsville and Corpus Christi at 6 PM showed a very strong capping inversion in place. This is preventing thunderstorms from developing across the area. Based on the strength of this capping inversion, it appears thunderstorms will have great difficulty developing over the next several hours. As the upper level storm system moves in during the early morning hours on Wednesday, thunderstorms may be able to finally develop across the RGV. Instability values look to remain quite low during the overnight hours, so the severe weather threat should remain isolated. A few strong storms are possible, but the severe weather threat looks to be diminished.

As a result, our previous forecast now looks to be a bust. This shouldn’t have much impact on the rainfall totals further to the north in the Central and Eastern part of Texas.

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New Severe Weather Outlook for Today and Tonight

Tuesday, 08 January 2013 00:07
David Reimer
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The Storm Prediction Center has issued their first Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday. Compared to the previous outlook issued on Monday, the risk has expanded. Now included in the risk area areas are the RGV, South Texas, and the western half of Southeast Texas. Major cities included are McAllen, Corpus Christi, San Antonio, Austin, and Houston. Those are just a few cities, definitely not all of them. The primary threat from discrete thunderstorms will be tornadoes while the threat with lines or clusters of thunderstorms will be straight-line winds. Should instability values be higher than we expect, the severe weather threat could increase substantially. We’ll be here to give you updates today, tonight, and Wednesday! The severe weather outlook from 6 AM Wednesday onward into the day won’t be issued for another 90 minutes. We’ll bring it to you when it’s issued.

1/8/12 12 AM Severe Weather Outlook

10:45 AM: Severe Weather Outbreak Preparing to Begin

Tuesday, 25 December 2012 10:39
David Reimer
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The Storm Prediction Center has just issued their late-morning outlook for severe weather. They have added a little more of Southeast Texas in the most significant risk of severe weather. This red zone shows where there is a 15% chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of your location. That is a very significant risk. The upper level energy responsible for the impending outbreak is just beginning to overspread East Texas. A broken line of thunderstorms has formed just west of Houston in the past 45 minutes. Several of these thunderstorms have exhibited rotation, but are still trying to develop. I do believe they will become much stronger by 12 PM.

This is a significant severe weather risk and there is a substantial risk of tornadoes once the storms get organized. There is even a enhanced for for strong tornadoes (EF2+). We’ll definitely be watching.

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An interesting, but concerning observation from visible satellite imagery taken around 10:15 AM. Notice that there is some clearing going on ahead of the developing line of thunderstorms in Southeast Texas. That will only future destabilize the atmosphere and is definitely not a good thing. We’re here and will continue to cover this event.

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