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Posts Tagged ‘tornado’

Severe Weather Risk extended into West Texas

29 April 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

Latest short term model guidance suggests that storms may be able to form a bit further south then expected earlier this morning, so the Storm Prediction Center has added more of West and Northwest Texas to the standard risk of severe weather. Within the orange shaded zone, folks have a 15 percent chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of any given point, such as a house. The brown shaded zone means there is a 5 percent chance and is a low severe weather risk. See our morning update for complete details. 


Another stormy day in the Texas Panhandle/West Texas

29 April 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

Another stormy day is in store for portions of West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. This graphic shows the probability of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of any given point (such as your house) this afternoon and during the evening hours. The brown colors represent a 5 percent chance while the orange shaded zone represents the main severe weather risk areas, where the standard 15 percent probability has been issued.

Like yesterday, not everyone will be affected by these thunderstorms. A few discrete thunderstorms will form during the early evening and perhaps congeal into a larger complex of thunderstorms. The strongest storms will be capable of producing large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. Strong outflow winds are also possible, especially if storms can organize into a line or complex later tonight.


Severe Weather Possible in Northwest Texas later today

28 April 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a risk of severe weather for much of Northwest Texas and western portions of North Texas for late this afternoon into the evening hours. The overall coverage of storms is in question because of a strong cap in place. I wouldn’t be surprised to see no storms today along the dryline, but if storms are able to form, ingredients are quite favorable for severe weather. Very large, damaging hail will be the main threat with any storm that is able to form this afternoon. A tornado is not out of the question. If storms are able to form into a cluster or complex this evening, the threat for damaging outflow winds would also increase.

We’ll have a better idea by noontime with how many storms we expect, or if we’ll even get any at all. Storms will remain northwest of D/FW as a strong cap will remain in place.


April 26 Severe Weather Outlook

26 April 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

This graphic shows the probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any given point, such as a house, this afternoon and evening. The green color represents a 5 percent risk, the orange color represents a 15 percent risk, and the dark-orange color represents a 30 percent risk. I’m in Oklahoma City right now about to head west on Interstate 40 towards the Texas Panhandle. At this point, I don’t have particularly high confidence that storms will be able to break through the cap before sunset. If the cap wins out this evening, I expect a line of storms to form around 9 or 10 PM as the upper level forcing arrives. The primary severe weather risks this afternoon and early evening will be the possibility of a brief tornado and very large hail with the strongest storms. Later tonight, the threats will transition over to a hail and damaging wind threat.

Be sure to bookmark our live video page!


SPC Severe Weather Outlook for April 26

25 April 2012 David Reimer 3 Comments

This graphic shows the probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any given point (such as a house) on Thursday, April 26. A standard risk is defined as the yellow shaded zone with an elevated risk of severe weather within the red shaded zone. The black hatched zone means there is a chance of very large hail. I’ll be chasing tomorrow and will have live video up and running! I’ll also have a detailed discussion posted later this evening.

This is the Storm Prediction Center’s discussion that accompanies this outlook. Some of this discussion is pretty technical, so I’ve highlighted some of the text so the non-weather folks can understand it.

 





NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1227 PM CDT WED APR 25 2012

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

   WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA/NRN BAJA COAST...CENTERED NEAR
   29N/127W...WILL EJECT INLAND EARLY IN THE DAY2 PERIOD BEFORE LIFTING
   NEWD INTO CO/NM BY 27/00Z.  THIS FEATURE WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
   HIGH PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS
   ACROSS THE ROCKIES LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL UNDOUBTEDLY RESPOND AND
   BECOME DECIDEDLY SELY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  WHILE THE LATEST
   SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED RECENTLY REGARDING THE AGGRESSIVE
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN...IT APPEARS A LEGITIMATE MOISTURE
   SURGE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WARM SECTOR OVER THE NEXT
   24-48HR AND 60-65 SFC DEW POINTS MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN
   TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION BY PEAK HEATING.  TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
   WILL FAVOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THOUGH STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
   SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE UPSLOPE REGION FROM
   THE TX PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME SERN CO.  FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING AROUND 21-22Z (4 PM - 5 PM CDT).
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE COULD EASILY EXCEED 2000 J/KG
   WITHIN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL STRONGLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.
   FAVORABLY SHEARED AND BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO LENDS CREDENCE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. HAVE INCREASED THE SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL.  LATE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
   ERN CO WITHIN STRONGER ZONE OF FORCED ASCENT.  THIS ACTIVITY COULD
   EASILY SPREAD INTO SWRN NEB/NWRN KS BY MIDNIGHT AS LLJ INCREASES
   DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.




 



										
										
										
					
				

			

			
						
			
														
								
			

				

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