



This graphic shows the chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location today and tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a standard “slight” risk of severe weather, shown by the yellow shading, for areas along and south of Interstate 10 from Fort Stockton eastward to San Antonio, then southeast to El Campo, Texas. Within this yellow shaded zone, there is a 15 percent chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of your location. In the brown shaded zone, there is a low chance of severe weather, meaning a 5 percent chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of your location.
Brown Shaded Zone: “Low” chance of severe weather (5 percent chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location.)
Yellow Shaded Zone: Standard Risk of severe weather (15 percent chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location.)
Primary Hazards with the strongest storms: Golfball size hail and damaging straight-line winds over 60 MPH
Second Hazards with the strongest storms: Brief tornadoes
The risk of Flooding will increase later this evening with a Flash Flood Watch already posted for much of South Texas.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a standard risk of severe weather for much of South and Southeast Texas for this afternoon and evening. Shaded in orange, areas in the standard risk of severe weather have a 15% chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of any given point, such as a house. This risk generally extends along and south of a line running from Laredo, San Antonio, Austin, College Station, to Lufkin. Areas outside this standard risk and located in the green have a low risk of severe weather this afternoon. The primary severe weather threats today will be from large hail and downburst winds around 60 MPH.
Across the Rio Grande Valley in Deep South Texas, we are a tad more concerned about the possibility of more significant severe weather this afternoon and evening with the potential for a few supercells. Within ths region, generally south of a Laredo to Corpus Christi line, very large hail and a few tornadoes will also be a concern. Folks living in this region are used to these supercells that usually roll in out of Mexico around sunset. We’ll be monitoring for this possibility and post updates as necessary this afternoon and evening.
Texas Storm Chasers’ David Reimer and Jenny Brown filmed multiple tornadoes from a cyclic supercell in extreme northern Oklahoma during the April 14, 2012 Tornado Outbreak that affected Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska. This was one of the first tornadoes produced by the supercell that would go on to produce tornadoes in Southern Kansas and WIchita, Kansas. Be sure to check out the zoomed in shot as the tornado moved over the road with debris clearly visible! This is only a short portion of nearly an hour of tornado footage shot from multiple high definition cameras. All this footage will be included in the Texas Storm Chasers 2012 Storm Footage DVD.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Eastern New Mexico, West Texas, and the Texas Panhandle in the standard “slight” risk of severe weather for the afternoon and evening hours. The strongest thunderstorms today will be capable of producing tennis ball size hail, damaging outflow winds around 60 MPH, and a tornado or two. Thunderstorms should begin forming by 4 PM along the Texas/New Mexico border and along a boundary oriented along Interstate 40. Thunderstorms will be slow moving and capable of producing heavy rainfall, so keep that in mind if you end up being under one for a while.
A significant outbreak of severe weather still appears likely on Friday and Saturday with the possibility of significant tornadoes. Please see our Facebook page for a video explaining the severe weather risks for the upcoming days.