Posts Tagged ‘TORNADOES’
Updated Storm Surveys from Wednesday’s Tornado Outbreak
- Published on Friday, 17 May 2013 16:06
- David Reimer
- 0 Comments
The National Weather Service has released an updated storm survey assessment from Wednesday’s Tornado Outbreak. 16 tornadoes have been confirmed from Montague County south into Johnson and Ellis Counties. The strongest tornado was rated an EF-4 and was of-course the Granbury tornado. The Cleburne tornado has been rated an EF-3 and was up to one mile wide. Now that many surveys are done, details about each tornado are starting to come together.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
358 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
…NWS DAMAGE SURVEY UPDATE FOR 05/15/2013 TORNADO EVENTS…
…16 TORNADOES HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED. ALL SURVEY CREWS HAVE RETURNED
FOR THE SECOND DAY AND NO ADDITIONAL SURVEYS HAVE BEEN SCHEDULED.
DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS WILL CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS
WILL BE ISSUED THIS EVENING TO UPDATE TIME AND LOCATION INFORMATION.
THIS INFORMATION REMAINS PRELIMINARY. SURVEY CREWS WENT TO GRANBURY…
CLEBURNE…ENNIS…MONTAGUE COUNTY…AND PARKER COUNTY. DATA COLLECTION
INCLUDED PHOTOGRAPHS AND VIDEO…EYEWITNESSES…AND RADAR DATA. THE
INFORMATION CONTAINED HERE COULD STILL CHANGE.
MOST OF THIS STATEMENT IS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER…TORNADO
NUMBER 7 AND TORNADO NUMBER 8 HAVE BEEN UPDATED HERE.
.TORNADO #1 – BELCHERVILLE/MONTAGUE COUNTY…
THIS TORNADO WAS REPORTED ONE MILE WEST OF BELCHERVILLE BY STORM
SPOTTERS. NO ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THIS TORNADO ARE AVAILABLE AT
THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO
LATER TONIGHT.
.TORNADO #2 – LAKE AMON G. CARTER/MONTAGUE COUNTY…
RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 100 MPH
INJURIES: 1
SURVEY CREWS FOUND FIVE HOMES DAMAGED BY THIS TORNADO SOUTH OF LAKE
AMON G. CARTER. FOUR OF THE HOMES WERE SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGED AND ONE
HOME WAS DESTROYED. IN ADDITION…SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE WAS
REPORTED. ONE MINOR INJURY WAS REPORTED. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL
BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO LATER.
.TORNADO #3 – ALVORD/WISE COUNTY…
THIS TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC AND STORM SPOTTERS. NO
ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THIS TORNADO ARE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO LATER.
.TORNADO #4 – MILLSAP/PARKER COUNTY…
RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 100 MPH
SURVEY CREWS FOUND FIVE HOMES SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGED BY THIS TORNADO.
IN ADDITION…SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO LATER.
.TORNADO #5 – GRANBURY/HOOD COUNTY…
RATING: EF-4
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 2.75 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 880 YARDS/0.5 MILES
FATALITIES: 6
INJURIES: DOZENS
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED WITH THIS TORNADO INCLUDING HOMES WIPED
CLEAR OFF THE FOUNDATION. TWO HOMES SUFFERED EF-4 MAGNITUDE DAMAGE
AND SEVERAL MORE SUFFERED EF-3 MAGNITUDE DAMAGE. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS TORNADO WILL BE PROVIDED LATER.
.TORNADO #6 – PECAN PLANTATION/HOOD COUNTY…
RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90-100 MPH
SURVEY CREWS FOUND AN ADDITIONAL DAMAGE PATH SEPARATE FROM TORNADO
#5 THAT AFFECTED GRANBURY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS TORNADO
WILL BE PROVIDED LATER.
.TORNADO #7 – WEST OF ANNETTA SOUTH/PARKER COUNTY…
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE WAS REPORTED ALONG TIN TOP ROAD BY EMERGENCY
OFFICIALS. NUMERUOS TREES…MOBILE HOMES…AND BARNS WERE DAMAGED
OR DESTROYED
RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 80 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 1.5 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 100 YARDS
.TORNADO #8 – CLEBURNE/JOHNSON COUNTY…
RATING: EF-3
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 140 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 8.5 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 1 MILE
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED WITH THIS STRONG TORNADO. DOZENS OF
HOMES WERE DAMAGED AND AT LEAST 3 OR 4 HOMES SUFFERED EF-3
MAGNITUDE DAMAGE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS
TORNADO LATER.
.TORNADO #9 – 6 ESE CLEBURNE/JOHNSON COUNTY…
RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 85 MPH
SURVEY CREWS FOUND AN ADDITIONAL DAMAGE PATH SEPARATE FROM TORNADO
#8. DAMAGE WITH THIS TORNADO WAS MOSTLY TO TREES BUT 5
MANUFACTURED HOMES ALSO SUFFERED ROOF DAMAGE. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO LATER.
.TORNADO #10 – MILLS COUNTY…
THIS BRIEF TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTERS. NO ADDITIONAL
DETAILS ON THIS TORNADO ARE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO LATER.
.TORNADOES #11 AND #12- NORTH OF EVANT/HAMILTON COUNTY…
VIDEO FOOTAGE SHOWED 2 BRIEF TORNADOES OCCURRED SIMULTANEOUSLY
APPROXIMATELY 2 MILES NORTH OF EVANT. NO ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON
THESE TORNADOES ARE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
WILL BE PROVIDED LATER.
.TORNADO #13 – ENNIS/ELLIS COUNTY…
RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUE/: APPROXIMATELY 6 MILES
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED IN ENNIS WITH THIS TORNADO. THE TORNADO
BEGAN NEAR CLAY STREET AND ENNIS AVENUE. THE TORNADO TRAVELED EAST
FROM THERE AND CROSSED INTERSTATE 45 SOUTH OF ENNIS AVENUE.
ACCORDING TO PRELIMINARY INFORMATION FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS…17
HOMES WERE DAMAGED WITH 4 HOMES LEFT INHABITABLE. A TOTAL OF 55
COMMERCIAL PROPERTIES WERE DAMAGED WITH 20 OF THOSE PROPERTIES
SUFFERING SEVERE DAMAGE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED
ON THIS TORNADO LATER.
.TORNADO #14 – SE OF MINERAL WELLS/PALO PINTO COUNTY…
RATING: EF-0
START DATE: 05/15/2013
START TIME: 6:41 PM CDT
START LOCATION: APPROXIMATELY 3.5 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MINERAL WELLS
END DATE: 05/15/2013
END TIME: 6:42 PM CDT
END LOCATION: APPROXIMATELY 3.5 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MINERAL WELLS
OFF DUTY NWS METEOROLOGISTS PHOTOGRAPHED A TORNADO APPROXIMATELY
3.5 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MINERAL WELLS OR 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MILLSAP. THIS TORNADO IS SEPARATE FROM THE MILLSAP TORNADO. SO FAR
NO DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED FROM THIS BRIEF TORNADO.
.TORNADO #15 – E OF MILLSAP/PARKER COUNTY…
RATING: EF-0
START DATE: 05/15/2013
START TIME: 7:22 PM CDT
START LOCATION: APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES EAST OF MILLSAP
END DATE: 05/15/2013
END TIME: 7:25 PM CDT
END LOCATION: APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES EAST OF MILLSAP
OFF DUTY NWS METEOROLOGISTS PHOTOGRAPHED A TORNADO APPROXIMATELY
3 MILES EAST OF MILLSAP. THIS TORNADO IS SEPARATE FROM THE MILLSAP
TORNADO. SO FAR NO DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED FROM THIS TORNADO.
.TORNADO #16 – NOCONA LAKE/MONTAGUE COUNTY…
THIS TORNADO WAS REPORTED NEAR NOCONA LAKE BY STORM SPOTTERS.
PICTURES OF THIS TORNADO WERE ALSO OBTAINED. SOME DAMAGE HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITH THIS TORNADO BUT NO ADDITIONAL DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE
AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS TORNADO WILL BE
PROVIDED LATER.
*EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO
THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.
EF0…WEAK……65 TO 85 MPH
EF1…WEAK……86 TO 110 MPH
EF2…STRONG….111 TO 135 MPH
EF3…STRONG….136 TO 165 MPH
EF4…VIOLENT…166 TO 200 MPH
EF5…VIOLENT…>200 MPH*
This map is maintained by the National Weather Service in Fort Worth and will be updated by them at their discretion. Each dot represents a separate tornado, although I hope more detailed tracks and photos will be added to this map in the future.
9 PM Update: 16 Tornadoes Confirmed with Updated Storm Survey
- Published on Thursday, 16 May 2013 20:50
- David Reimer
- 16 Comments
Several pieces of new information have come out about yesterday’s tornadoes. The first of which is that there are now 16 confirmed tornadoes from Wednesday’s outbreak. The Granbury, TX tornado is now confirmed to have been half a mile wide at its largest, but was only on the ground for 2.5 miles. That is an extremely short path length for a violent tornado. Additional damage surveys will take place on Friday and it is likely the tornado count will rise.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
844 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
…NWS DAMAGE SURVEYS FOR 05/15/2013 TORNADO EVENT…
…16 TORNADOES HAVE NOW BEEN CONFIRMED. ALL SURVEY CREWS HAVE
RETURNED FOR THE DAY AND SOME OF THEIR INFORMATION HAS BEEN
INCLUDED IN THIS UPDATE…
SO FAR 16 TORNADOES HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED. THE FIRST TORNADO
OCCURRED IN MONTAGUE COUNTY AT 538 PM CDT. THE LAST REPORTED
TORNADO WAS AROUND 1210 AM IN ENNIS.
THIS INFORMATION IS CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY. SURVEY TEAMS WERE
SENT TO JOHNSON COUNTY…HOOD COUNTY…PARKER COUNTY…ELLIS
COUNTY AND MONTAGUE COUNTY. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WE WILL
CONTINUE TO COLLECT DATA…TALK WITH EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND
RESPONDERS…AND EYE WITNESSES…REVIEW RADAR DATA…PICTURES AND
VIDEOS. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT IS SUBJECT TO AND
LIKELY WILL CHANGE.
AN ADDITIONAL SURVEY TEAM WILL BE SENT TO SURVEY DAMAGE NORTHWEST
OF CRESSON IN SOUTHERN PARKER COUNTY ON FRIDAY.
.TORNADO #1 – BELCHERVILLE/MONTAGUE COUNTY…
THIS TORNADO WAS REPORTED ONE MILE WEST OF BELCHERVILLE BY STORM
SPOTTERS. NO ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THIS TORNADO ARE AVAILABLE AT
THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO
LATER.
.TORNADO #2 – LAKE AMON G. CARTER/MONTAGUE COUNTY…
RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 100 MPH
INJURIES: 1
SURVEY CREWS FOUND FIVE HOMES DAMAGED BY THIS TORNADO SOUTH OF LAKE
AMON G. CARTER. FOUR OF THE HOMES WERE SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGED AND ONE
HOME WAS DESTROYED. IN ADDITION…SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE WAS
REPORTED. ONE MINOR INJURY WAS REPORTED. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL
BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO LATER.
.TORNADO #3 – ALVORD/WISE COUNTY…
THIS TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC AND STORM SPOTTERS. NO
ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THIS TORNADO ARE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO LATER.
.TORNADO #4 – MILLSAP/PARKER COUNTY…
RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 100 MPH
SURVEY CREWS FOUND FIVE HOMES SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGED BY THIS TORNADO.
IN ADDITION…SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO LATER.
.TORNADO #5 – GRANBURY/HOOD COUNTY…
RATING: EF-4
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 2.75 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 880 YARDS/0.5 MILES
FATALITIES: 6
INJURIES: DOZENS
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED WITH THIS TORNADO INCLUDING HOMES WIPED
CLEAR OFF THE FOUNDATION. TWO HOMES SUFFERED EF-4 MAGNITUDE DAMAGE
AND SEVERAL MORE SUFFERED EF-3 MAGNITUDE DAMAGE. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS TORNADO WILL BE PROVIDED LATER.
.TORNADO #6 – PECAN PLANTATION/HOOD COUNTY…
RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90-100 MPH
SURVEY CREWS FOUND AN ADDITIONAL DAMAGE PATH SEPARATE FROM TORNADO
#5 THAT AFFECTED GRANBURY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS TORNADO
WILL BE PROVIDED LATER.
.TORNADO #7 – WEST OF ANNETTA SOUTH/PARKER COUNTY…
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE WAS REPORTED ALONG TIN TOP ROAD BY EMERGENCY
OFFICIALS. A SURVEY CREW WILL BE SENT TO THE DAMAGED AREA ON
FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS TORNADO WILL BE PROVIDED
LATER.
.TORNADO #8 – CLEBURNE/JOHNSON COUNTY…
RATING: EF-3
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 140 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 8.5 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 1060 YARDS/0.6 MILES
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED WITH THIS STRONG TORNADO. DOZENS OF
HOMES WERE DAMAGED AND AT LEAST 3 OR 4 HOMES SUFFERED EF-3
MAGNITUDE DAMAGE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS
TORNADO LATER.
.TORNADO #9 – 6 ESE CLEBURNE/JOHNSON COUNTY…
RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 85 MPH
SURVEY CREWS FOUND AN ADDITIONAL DAMAGE PATH SEPARATE FROM TORNADO
#8. DAMAGE WITH THIS TORNADO WAS MOSTLY TO TREES BUT 5
MANUFACTURED HOMES ALSO SUFFERED ROOF DAMAGE. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO LATER.
.TORNADO #10 – MILLS COUNTY…
THIS BRIEF TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTERS. NO ADDITIONAL
DETAILS ON THIS TORNADO ARE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON THIS TORNADO LATER.
.TORNADOES #11 AND #12- NORTH OF EVANT/HAMILTON COUNTY…
VIDEO FOOTAGE SHOWED 2 BRIEF TORNADOES OCCURRED SIMULTANEOUSLY
APPROXIMATELY 2 MILES NORTH OF EVANT. NO ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON
THESE TORNADOES ARE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
WILL BE PROVIDED LATER.
.TORNADO #13 – ENNIS/ELLIS COUNTY…
RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUE/: APPROXIMATELY 6 MILES
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED IN ENNIS WITH THIS TORNADO. THE TORNADO
BEGAN NEAR CLAY STREET AND ENNIS AVENUE. THE TORNADO TRAVELED EAST
FROM THERE AND CROSSED INTERSTATE 45 SOUTH OF ENNIS AVENUE.
ACCORDING TO PRELIMINARY INFORMATION FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS…17
HOMES WERE DAMAGED WITH 4 HOMES LEFT INHABITABLE. A TOTAL OF 55
COMMERCIAL PROPERTIES WERE DAMAGED WITH 20 OF THOSE PROPERTIES
SUFFERING SEVERE DAMAGE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED
ON THIS TORNADO LATER.
.TORNADO #14 – SE OF MINERAL WELLS/PALO PINTO COUNTY…
RATING: EF-0
START DATE: 05/15/2013
START TIME: 6:41 PM CDT
START LOCATION: APPROXIMATELY 3.5 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MINERAL WELLS
END DATE: 05/15/2013
END TIME: 6:42 PM CDT
END LOCATION: APPROXIMATELY 3.5 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MINERAL WELLS
OFF DUTY NWS METEOROLOGISTS PHOTOGRAPHED A TORNADO APPROXIMATELY
3.5 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MINERAL WELLS OR 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MILLSAP. THIS TORNADO IS SEPARATE FROM THE MILLSAP TORNADO. SO FAR
NO DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED FROM THIS BRIEF TORNADO.
.TORNADO #15 – E OF MILLSAP/PARKER COUNTY…
RATING: EF-0
START DATE: 05/15/2013
START TIME: 7:22 PM CDT
START LOCATION: APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES EAST OF MILLSAP
END DATE: 05/15/2013
END TIME: 7:25 PM CDT
END LOCATION: APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES EAST OF MILLSAP
OFF DUTY NWS METEOROLOGISTS PHOTOGRAPHED A TORNADO APPROXIMATELY
3 MILES EAST OF MILLSAP. THIS TORNADO IS SEPARATE FROM THE MILLSAP
TORNADO. SO FAR NO DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED FROM THIS TORNADO.
.TORNADO #16 – NOCONA LAKE/MONTAGUE COUNTY…
THIS TORNADO WAS REPORTED NEAR NOCONA LAKE BY STORM SPOTTERS.
PICTURES OF THIS TORNADO WERE ALSO OBTAINED. SOME DAMAGE HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITH THIS TORNADO BUT NO ADDITIONAL DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE
AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS TORNADO WILL BE
PROVIDED LATER.
EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.
EF0…WEAK……65 TO 85 MPH
EF1…WEAK……86 TO 110 MPH
EF2…STRONG….111 TO 135 MPH
EF3…STRONG….136 TO 165 MPH
EF4…VIOLENT…166 TO 200 MPH
EF5…VIOLENT…>200 MPH
April Fool’s Day 2013 Severe Weather for Northwest Texas
- Published on Monday, 01 April 2013 02:00
- David Drummond
- 11 Comments
I’d like to say we’re pulling a prank you on here, but unfortunately not this time. A closed low off to our west will slowly edge our way, while the tail end of a cold front trailing from all the way up in Canada will ease southward through the southern Panhandle and South Plains area today, and should provide the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. In fact, the SPC has issued a standard risk of Severe Weather for the area.
Vertical wind profiles aren’t impressive, but they are better than they were with the activity the other day, and while surface moisture may be a bit lacking, we could still see some supercell storms emerge, with the primary threat being large hail. Some high wind gusts are also a possibility, and even a brief window of opportunity late evening for a short lived tornado or two across the eastern south plains and adjacent rolling plains, with any individual supercells that may exist during that period.
Activity should move off to the east through the southern rolling plains, likely affecting areas along and north of the I20 corridor. Activity will likely persist well into the late evening, perhaps even early morning hours as it moves east. In fact, it may well evolve into a large Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) late, as depicted by some models, as it marches toward North Texas. Once activity evolves into this mode, the threats should mostly be hail and high winds, and this could also be a nice rain producer for a lot of people!
Highest threat at this time for supercell storms appears to be along and east of US385, and probably south of a Dimmitt to Childress, TX line down to around the I20 corridor. This area will likely be refined during the day tomorrow as more data comes to light.
Northwest Texas, please check back with us, as well as have your weather radios turned on throughout the day on Monday. I’ll be out chasing in the area as well tomorrow, and you’ll be able to check right here at TexasStormChasers.com and watch live, and as always well keep you updated both here and through our social media accounts.
Severe Weather Coming to West Texas Saturday 02/09/2013
- Published on Friday, 08 February 2013 17:16
- David Drummond
- 0 Comments
HIGH WIND and RED FLAG WARNINGS for SOUTHWEST TEXAS through Saturday
All our recent spring-like weather is about to first get even more spring-like, and then remind us that it’s still the winter season here in West Texas. I’m a little short on time here, so I’m going to borrow heavily from our local NWS offices for some graphics here (very much appreciated guys and gals!)
Our first really spring-like day will be Saturday as a very strong upper level trough that is currently over the southwestern U.S. begins affecting West Texas weather, with a typical spring dryline setup in the eastern half of west Texas, and a windy setup west of the dryline.
Indications at this time are the dryline will setup from Amarillo to Lubbock roughly along the I27 corridor, and then further south bisecting the Permian Basin through the Midland/Odessa area.
Already surface winds have shifted around to the southeast to begin the process of advecting gulf moisture up into western Texas, however a quick look across the area, dewpoints are at this time still pretty meager in only the teens to 20s range. That however is forecast to change by Saturday, where low 50s dewpoints are expected east of the dryline all the way up to the I27 area at least, which is pretty impressive for early February.
This moisture, combined with daytime heating and more than ample vertical wind shear will produce an environment favorable for supercells, and their typical severe weather, including large hail and tornadoes.
Right now it appears the absolute most favored area for this to happen is in the southeast Panhandle, probably around the Silverton to Childress area, but storms could fire anywhere up and down the dryline.
I am however concerned about amounts of instability, or the lack thereof actually. With this much vertical wind shear available, you need strong updrafts to be able to stand up enough in it to organize rather than get sheared apart, and that may prove to be the fly in the ointment, as daytime highs east of the dryline on Saturday may struggle to reach 70F. We really need some more daytime heating to make this a more potent severe weather maker.
That said, there are many favorable parameters and we need to be aware of the potential as this evolves as we move toward Saturday and not discount the possibility too much. I feel like we’ll see some storms, perhaps even some elevated supercells (which usually turns out to hinder tornado production) so high wind and large hail I think will be the primary threats at this time.
Should higher instability happen (as one model predicts) or one or two of these storms really get organized enough to become rooted into the boundary layer, then certainly the overall severe threat increases with one of these storms, including the tornado threat. I’ll be watching this one closely over the next 48 hours as the data comes in. Altogether, this is an impressive setup for West Texas for early February for sure.
Timing is also a factor as it appears right now around 6pm may be the favored time for storms to get going, right as we loose all daytime heating. Will the forcing from this system be able to pull it off? We’ll have to see how it evolves. One of the models I’m looking at generates some line segment storms along the dryline, then evolves that into a squall line the further east it gets that goes on to affect most of the rest of the State to our east. This of course increases rain chances for anyone east of the dryline, with any activity that gets going making its way eastward.
Back west, high winds will be the story. High Wind Warnings already posted for the typical high terrain areas of the Guadalupe Mountains and mountain areas of Southwest Texas.
Winds around 45 gusting to 60 mph around the Guadalupe Pass area and gusting to around 50 through the Ft. Davis/Alpine areas. Areas over 6000ft especially at risk for higher winds. Wind Advisories are also out for the surrounding areas and even into southeast NM where winds will gust into the 45mph range. Of course blowing dust also a concern, especially north of I20 and west of the dryline. North/South travelers in high profile vehicles will have hazardous driving conditions, as well as sudden low visibility situations near open fields and construction areas.
Fire Weather is also a concern, as it typically is when things are dry and the winds are up in west Texas. Red Flag Warnings have been posted across all of southwest Texas, southern and eastern New Mexico as well as a Fire Weather Watch for areas west of the dryline in the western Panhandle/South Plains. Some of this wind will carry over into Sunday as well, althought not as strong, but will still hold over some fire weather concerns.
If all this weather isn’t exciting enough for you, another low pressure system will be heading our way the beginning of the week, along with some colder temperatures and plenty of moisture, which could bring some snow, perhaps even some heavy snow to northwest Texas…especially in the Panhandle. Still plenty of uncertainties, but that is your heads up, and I’ll have more on that as the time gets closer.
Tornado/Flooding Threat for North Texas
- Published on Tuesday, 07 September 2010 00:21
- David Reimer
- 0 Comments
Good Morning,
With the sudden development of Tropical Storm Hermine the forecast for this week has changed substantially. What would have only been a minor heavy rain event has escalated into something of a more serious matter.
width=”800″ height=”600″ />National Radar Composite
Rain Totals: Next 7 Days
By Evan Headley
By Tina Gage Leatherwood
By Darlene Richter Prutzman
By Darlene Richter Prutzman
By BreeAnn Talley