Tag Archives: tropical storm

4 AM CDT Tropical Depression #4 Advisory

At 4 AM CDT Tropical Depression #4 was located at 22.9N/73.3W with maximum sustained winds of 35 MPH and a minimum central pressure of 29.59 inches. TD #4 is moving northwest at 9 MPH. Strengthening is forecast and this system should become Tropical Storm Cristobal later today when maximum sustained winds reach 40 MPH. Overnight model guidance has trended east with the overall track of this system. The result is a decreased, but not eliminated threat to the Eastern United States. Regardless of the eventual path this system should become a hurricane next week. Rough and dangerous surf and rip currents will be a problem across the Atlantic coastline of the Eastern United States. This system will not impact Texas weather at all.

054408W_sm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
500 AM AST SUN AUG 24 2014

…DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.9N 73.3W
ABOUT 40 MI…60 KM NNW OF MAYAGUANA ISLAND
ABOUT 120 MI…190 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS…INCLUDING THE ACKLINS…CROOKED
ISLAND…LONG CAY…THE INAGUAS…MAYAGUANA…AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS…AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS…INCLUDING CAT ISLAND…THE EXUMAS…LONG
ISLAND…RUM CAY…AND SAN SALVADOR

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING…FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
THROUGH MONDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS…AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB…29.59 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS…THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS…AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY…WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA…
WHERE THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES…ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
500 AM AST SUN AUG 24 2014

The satellite presentation of the tropical depression has gradually
improved overnight. Convection has increased to the northeast
of the center and a little more banding is noted. Although the
pressure has dropped a few millibars during the past 6 to 12 hours,
data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the cyclone remains a 30-kt tropical depression.

Fixes from the aircraft yield an initial motion of 325/8 kt. The
cyclone is expected to slow down and turn north-northwestward today
into a break in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough
that is currently moving off the U.S. east coast. This trough is
forecast to dig southeastward during the next 24 to 36 hours before
lifting northeastward on Tuesday. The track guidance has shifted
significantly eastward this cycle, with the exception of the latest
ECMWF, which is very similar to its 1200 UTC run. The eastward
shift in most of the models appears to be the result of increased
interaction of the cyclone with the aforementioned trough during the
next 48 hours. This leads to a more north-northwestward or
northward motion during the next day or so. Once the trough lifts
out, most of the guidance shows a bend back toward the northwest,
before the cyclone turns northward and northeast around a
subtropical ridge to its east. The NHC track has been shifted
eastward, but it remains along the western side of the
guidance envelope out of respect for the ECMWF and continuity of the
previous forecasts. The new track forecast is closest to the HWRF,
but is well west of the latest multi-model consensus. Future
eastward adjustments may be required if the eastward model trend
continues. Given that a large spread remains in the guidance,
the confidence in the track forecast remains lower than normal.

Light to moderate northwesterly shear is expected during the next
few days. However, the shear is not expected to be strong enough to
prevent strengthening, and the official forecast calls for gradual
intensification throughout the forecast period. The NHC intensity
forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance and the intensity
consensus ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 22.9N 73.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 23.7N 73.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 24.4N 73.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 25.0N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 25.9N 74.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 28.5N 75.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 31.5N 75.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 34.0N 70.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

Something Possibly Brewing in the Atlantic…???

The folks at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring the development Invest 92L in the Atlantic…halfway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Probability of formation into a Tropical Storm within the next 48 hours has been upped to 50% as it continues to show signs of organization and increasing wind speeds, near tropical storm force, close to the center of its (forming) circulation.  Should it form, it will become Tropical Storm “Bertha”  But, we all know that means it has a 50% chance of not becoming a tropical storm! Nevertheless, we’ll continue to monitor this as it does have the potential to track into the Gulf of Mexico should it form.  Below are the latest satellite imagery and current forecast track.  It’s still way too early to get excited about this storm, but with rather hot and boring weather anticipated for Texas over the next week, it’s at least something to keep us entertained!

two_atl_2d0

vis0-lalo

 

92L_tracks_latest

 

Tropical Disturbance sitting east of Florida

atl1

An area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is sitting about 230 miles east of St. Augustine, Florida this evening. Surface pressures have slowly been falling today and environmental conditions are marginally favorable for continued development. Most indications are that development of a Tropical Depression is likely early this week. From there it could strengthen into a tropical storm. With only marginal conditions in place this will be a slow developing system. The main impacts for the next few days will be scattered thunderstorms across Florida as is normal for summer afternoons. Increased swells could be noted across the Atlantic seaboard as we head later into the week.

AL91_current

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 230 miles east of St. Augustine, Florida, remain
limited. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development during the next few days and a tropical
depression is likely to form by mid-week while the system moves
slowly southward to southwestward off the east-central coast of
Florida. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance on Monday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

Weak steering currents mean Invest 91 will slowly meander off the east coast of Florida for the next few days. As an upper level ridge builds in across the Atlantic the system could begin to move towards the north/northeast later this week. If Invest 91 has developed into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm as expected than this could cause inclement weather across parts of the eastern seaboard. With July 4th later this week we know that many of you will be traveling out east. At this time I’d advise not to let this system cause you to adjust your travel plans. While increased rain chances may occur in Florida and parts of the eastern seaboard we don’t expect it to be a wash-out. We’ll continue to monitor Invest 91 and post updates this week as needed with the latest information and forecasts. While I do expect this system to become a Tropical Depression or Storm later this week the chance of it becoming a hurricane seems low at this time. Should this system become a Tropical Storm it will be named Arthur and the first storm of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

This system will have no impact on our weather or shore conditions in Texas.

Weather Roundup – Thursday October 3rd

Good morning and happy Thursday!  We’ve almost made it through the work week!  Kindof a copy/paste forecast from yesterday as we have another warm and humid day ahead of us.  Rain chances look to be a little less than yesterday, but once again they’ll be confined mainly along the upper coastal areas this afternoon along the seabreeze front.  Highs today will once again be in the mid 80’s to low 90’s across most of the state with the hottest temps expected across northwest to west central Texas and along the Rio Grande.   Lows tonight will be warm once again in the low to mid 70’s except for portions of the northwest panhandle where drier air will allow for additional cooling overnight.

Highs today

Lows tonight

We’re still on target to have a very strong cold front blow through the state on Saturday.  Latest medium to short-range forecast models are still a bit in flux on the exact timing of its arrival, but it appears the front will come in slower and stronger than what’s been in the forecast the past few days.  So…estimated timing right now would be for the front to  enter the northern panhandle around 7pm on Friday, entering northwest Texas by 1am Saturday morning, approaching the DFW metro area by about 7am…then into central Texas sometime around noon.  South central and coast areas of the state should see the front arrive late in the day on Saturday and into the overnight hours.  At least that’s what it looks like for now, but we’ll continue to keep you updated!   Widespread rain and severe weather is not expected with the arrival of the front, but a line of showers and thunderstorms is possible along with some light rain after the passage of the front.

Approximate 1am position of the front early Saturday morning. 

1am saturday front

Approximate position of the front by 1pm Saturday

1pm front saturday

In the tropics…latest data from hurricane hunter aircraft has indicated that the area of disturbed weather over the Yucatan Peninsula has reached tropical storm force.  They are expected to have an update out shortly regarding the development of tropical storm “Karen”.  As you can see on the two graphics posted above, this particular forecast model has her making landfall along the coast of Mississippi.  That is certainly not etched in stone, but nearly all the tropical storm tracking models have Karen making landfall somewhere between New Orleans, LA and Panama City, FL.  Folks with family or other interests along the coast from Louisiana over to the Florida panhandle will want to continue to monitor Karen’s development and track over the next few days.  And we’ll bring you the latest updates as they are released!

Karen

Weather Roundup – Monday September 23rd

Good morning and happy Monday!  It will be a very pleasant day today with mostly sunny skies and mild temps across the entire region.  A strong low pressure system over the Rockies this morning will move east into the central plains today with high pressure building over the state in its wake.  This will aid in increasing temps throughout the week and also keeping us rain free…with exception of the coastal regions.  For the coastal regions, an area of weak low pressure over the northwestern Gulf will meander around this week and towards the north central Gulf by mid-week.  This will maintain cloudy to partly cloudy conditions for the next few days and also bring chances of showers from Beaumont down to Victoria/Corpus area.  While this low pressure area is showing up on the current National Hurricane Center’s tropical weather outlook, it’s been given a near zero chance of any tropical storm development within the next 48 hours.

Gulf Low

Rain today

Highs today will be pleasant and mainly in the mid 80’s to low 90’s.  Humidity levels are expected to remain low for all except the aforementioned coastal regions, so even with a warm up to temps in the low 90’s won’t feel very miserable.  Lows tonight will range from the 50’s and possibly even a few 40’s in the northwestern panhandle, to the 60’s and low 70’s as you move south.

Highs today

Our next chance of rain won’t arrive until Friday – Saturday with the arrival of a cold front with the chance of showers and thunderstorms out ahead of it.  The rain will not be as widespread as our last event due to the lack of deep tropical moisture in the area, but some areas could see 1/4 to 1 inch depending on if you’re lucky enough to be under one of the stronger lines of storms that moves though.  We’ll have more updates during the week with the expected timing of the front and rain chances once the forecast refines just a bit more.

 

 

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