Tag Archives: Weather

Weather Roundup – Monday March 3rd

How does the old saying go?  “March comes in like a Lion and goes out like a Lamb?”  I certainly hope so after the start we’ve had!  Chilly today with temps in the upper 20’s and low 30’s for a large portion of northern Texas where many areas received freezing rain and sleet yesterday.  Roads are slick across the panhandle and into northern Texas this morning, but increasing sunshine and dry winds will help to clear off residual snow/sleet and ice.  There may still be patchy ice spots overnight and tomorrow morning, but we’re hoping the bulk of it will be out of here before sundown.

Highs today

One interesting item to note…some folks across north central Texas are actually getting “lake effects snow” this morning!  I live by Lake Lewisville and noticed it snowing this morning, but didn’t put 2 and 2 together on this because it’s so rare for our area.  But, there ya go!

Lake Effects Snow

No other precip is expected today across the northern half of the state, but for the southern half, precip is expected to pick up later today and during the overnight hours as another upper level disturbance approaches from northern Mexico.  This will set the stage for another round of freezing rain/sleet for parts of central Texas by early tomorrow morning.  Conley will have a detailed blog out later today, so be on the lookout for that around lunchtime!

Tues Morning

Lows tonight…chilly once again, but thankfully not as low as last night’s temps for folks in the panhandle.  Temps will remain on the chilly side for most of the week.  Western Texas and along the Rio Grande will likely see the warmest temps across the state this week with highs back into the 60’s by Wednesday. For the rest of the state, the chilly daytime highs hang on a bit longer, but by Friday most of the state should be seeing the nice pleasant 70’s once again.  But, then we’ve got yet another cold front expected to arrive over the weekend, so we’re not done yet with the rollercoaster ride of temps!

Lows tonight

Afternoon Thoughts on Winter Weather Potential

Here are a few late afternoon notes on our thoughts for Sunday’s winter weather potential across North Texas. The storm system that will be responsible for our active day tomorrow is just now moving into Southern California and the national weather observation network. My hope is that we’ll get a good idea of how strong the storm system is tonight with the new weather model runs along with the storm system being in the national weather network. As such there could be some changes to the forecast tonight into tomorrow… or the weather models may have it spot on and we’ll be good to go. Either way, winter weather is tricky business in Texas.

image_full4

What we do know:

  • Very cold, arctic air is moving south down the plains this afternoon. While temperatures are in the 70s, 80s, and even low 90s on this first day of meteorological spring in Texas very cold air is just now invading the Panhandle. Perryton, TX is down to 24°F while 130 miles south it is in the low 80s.  Most of Kansas is now experiencing temperatures in the teens with wind chills below zero. This very cold, dense air is going to shove south and nothing is going to stand in its way. We know the cold air is coming, but what is still uncertain is how quickly can it move south and drop temperatures below freezing in North Texas.
  • During the day on Sunday there will be over a quarter inch of liquid precipitation that falls. That won’t change even if temperatures stay above or go below freezing.
  • Areas along and north of Interstate 20 (including the D/FW Metroplex) will fall below freezing during the afternoon hours on Sunday. We do expect some ice accumulation in areas under the Winter Weather Advisory.
  • Based on the current data we do expect elevated surfaces (bridges, overpasses) will accumulate ice by early Sunday evening (if not the afternoon hours) across the Winter Weather Advisory. That means travel difficulties can be expected.

What is not known and what is also possible:

  • If the temperature remains just above freezing through most of the precipitation than ice accumulations and associated travel problems will remain minor. If the temperature falls below freezing more quickly than there is the potential for an ice storm with hazardous travel conditions likely on Sunday evening continuing into the morning commute on Monday.
  • Will the warm temperatures today help keep ice from accumulating on surface roads on Sunday?
  • Could temperatures fall below freezing more quickly than what we expect right now?
  • There is the potential for an enhanced area of winter precipitation with thunder-sleet possible. Thundersleet is like a thunderstorm but with temperatures below freezing. Thundersleet also greatly enhances precipitation rates and could cause significant accumulations in a localized area.

Summary: 

The storm system responsible for this “lovely weather” is moving into southern California this afternoon. As I said above we should be able to get a full glimpse of it now that is is onshore with this evening’s weather models. We do expect travel impacts across North Texas (along/north of I-20) including the D/FW Metroplex. Any number of small changes could cause this event to underperform or overperform. There will likely be forecast changes tonight and on Sunday, so check back.

Winter Weather Advisory along/north of I-20 in N TX for Sunday

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has just issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the northern half of North Texas. This advisory runs along and north of Interstate 20 from Gordon eastward into the D/FW Metroplex and to Van, TX. It takes effect at 6 AM on Sunday and runs until 9 PM on Sunday although any ice accumulations could cause travel difficulties into the Monday morning rush-hour. Current data suggests light ice accumulations up to a tenth of an inch will be possible in the advisory zone with travel difficulties expected especially on elevated surfaces. Jenny will have the forecast details in her morning discussion a bit later.

2014-03-01_3-44-02

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
341 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM GRAHAM TO MINERAL WELLS TO CANTON…

.SYNOPSIS…AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL CAUSE RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT SLEET FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGHEST
ICE ACCUMULATION AND THE WORST ROAD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
NORTH OF A LINE FROM BOWIE TO DECATUR TO PLANO TO SULPHUR SPRINGS.
ALL PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY EVENING.

MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-
HOPKINS-RAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BOWIE…NOCONA…GAINESVILLE…
SHERMAN…DENISON…BONHAM…PARIS…DECATUR…BRIDGEPORT…
DENTON…LEWISVILLE…FLOWER MOUND…THE COLONY…PLANO…
GREENVILLE…COMMERCE…COOPER…SULPHUR SPRINGS…EMORY…
POINT…EAST TAWAKONI
341 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST
SUNDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO
9 PM CST SUNDAY.

* LOCATION…THIS STATEMENT IS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM BOWIE TO BRIDGEPORT TO PLANO TO EMORY.

* TIMING…RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT SLEET
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. NORTHWESTERN AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING…WHILE MORE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

* ICE ACCUMULATION…A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* MAIN IMPACT…LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL COAT BRIDGES…
OVERPASSES…AND SOME ROADWAYS WITH A GLAZE OF ICE. TRAVEL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND PLAN ON SOME TRAVEL DELAYS.

___________________

YOUNG-JACK-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-
VAN ZANDT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…GRAHAM…OLNEY…JACKSBORO…
MINERAL WELLS…WEATHERFORD…BRIAR…FORT WORTH…ARLINGTON…
DALLAS…ROCKWALL…TERRELL…KAUFMAN…FORNEY…WILLS POINT…
CANTON…GRAND SALINE…VAN…EDGEWOOD
341 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST
SUNDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM
TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY.

* LOCATION…THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE COUNTIES OF YOUNG…JACK…
PALO PINTO…PARKER…TARRANT…DALLAS…ROCKWALL…KAUFMAN AND
VAN ZANDT.

* TIMING…RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AS TEMPERATURES
DROP BELOW FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING OVER NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF
THE ADVISORY AREA…AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY OVER THE
METROPLEX…AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

* ACCUMULATION…A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST.

* MAIN IMPACT…LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL COAT BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES WITH A GLAZE OF ICE. TRAVEL MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND PLAN ON SOME TRAVEL DELAYS.

Weather Roundup – Friday February 28th – Spring-like Today & Saturday then Winter Returns on Sunday

Good morning and TGIF!  For today’s roundup, I’m only going to lightly touch on conditions expected today, then jump into a bit longer discussion about what to expect Sunday with the next strong cold front and the chances for severe weather and winter weather.  Anyone that has lived in Texas for any length of time knows that we can experience all four seasons in one day!  So, let’s get started!  Temps will warm up quite a bit today with highs in the 70’s  and 80’s across the state.  It will be dry and windy though…with the dryline pushing east to along the I-35 corridor by this afternoon.  Winds gusting to 25 to 35+mph, lots of dry grass and low humidity levels will lead to critical wildfire conditions today.  Winds should begin to die down by early evening, becoming relatively calm overnight with lows ranging from the 30’s across the panhandle, 40’s across north central, central and west central Texas…and 50’s to 60’s expected further south along the coast.

Red Flag Highs

Lows

Now, let’s jump ahead to the forecast for late Saturday and into Sunday.  A strong cold front will begin to drop down into the state late Saturday affecting the panhandle region first…then northern Texas by early Sunday morning.  In addition to the chance for winter weather across parts of the panhandle late Saturday and into Sunday morning, and northern Texas during the day on Sunday…we also have a chance for some severe weather as storms form out ahead of the advancing cold front.  The Storm Prediction Center has already placed a portion of north central, central and eastern Texas under a threat for severe weather. The timing for this would be Sunday afternoon…mainly from Noon until around 6pm.  This could change depending upon how fast the cold front moves through, but for now, expect that there could be severe storm development with the threat of large hail, damaging winds and even a small tornado threat Sunday afternoon.

Sunday SPC Risk

Here’s what we have right now as far as frontal timing.  Recent forecast model runs have the cold air coming in faster than what it was showing just a few days ago, so the timing presented on the graphic set below could change between now and Sunday and speed up just a bit.  But for now, this should give everyone a good idea of what to expect.

Midnight Saturday Front 6am Sunday Front Noon Sunday Front 6pm Sunday Front

The panhandle has a chance of seeing wintry weather beginning late Saturday and into early Sunday with light sleet and snow accumulations.  Further south along the Red River and into north central Texas…including the DFW metro area…winter weather is also possible, but will be completely dependent upon how fast the front moves through and how cold the temps are at the time the expected precipitation is falling.  At this point, it looks fairly likely and this could result in  some icy road conditions developing across the area Sunday afternoon.  We will have more updates on any winter weather risks for the DFW Metro later today and into tomorrow after more forecast model data arrives.

AMA Snow Sat-Sunday FWD Sunday Winter Wx

 

Critical Fire Weather Danger on Friday

Meteorological spring and the unofficial start to the storm chasing season is only days away and today certainly made it feel that way. While one might not associate early spring with grass fires we actually do have several fire days during the spring. A relatively weak shortwave (atmosphere disturbance) will quickly move over portions of the Texas Panhandle into North Texas on Friday. We’re not expecting much int he way of precipitation from this system. A few light showers may occur during the morning hours on Friday across the Panhandle but that will be about it. Of much more concern is the likelihood for critical fire weather conditions. As the base of the trough moves over the Texas Panhandle during the early afternoon and over North Texas during the late afternoon wind speeds at about 18,000 feet above sea level will be cranking at over 100 MPH. Mostly sunny skies in the area will allow for atmospheric mixing to occur. Simply put that means as the atmosphere warms up because of sunlight the higher wind speeds above the surface will be able to partially mix down to the ground.

2014-02-27_18-14-50

We’re expecting a windy Friday with some wind gusts approaching 40 MPH. Meanwhile a dryline will surge east towards Interstate 35 during the early afternoon hours. If this was April we could be dealing with a severe weather setup. However, a strong inversion layer (the cap) will keep thunderstorm chances to near zero on Friday. Never the less its going to be a humid afternoon to the east of the dryline with gusty south winds. West of the dryline is where the fire concerns will be present as very dry air blows in from the west and temperatures soar into the 80s. Relative humidity values could tank below ten percent in some areas with strong west winds gusting over 40 MPH. Red Flag Conditions are expected across the western sections of North Texas (generally along and west of Interstate 35E) into the Hill Country, Big Country, and South Plains. Grass fires will likely become uncontrollable within minutes and require significant resources to contain. Outdoor burning should be postponed and open flames should be used with extreme caution. Check with your local county for burn ban information.

2014-02-27_18-53-46

If we didn’t have the critical fire danger on Friday I would say it would be a picture-perfect day. Temperatures are going to be the warmest they’ve been in a while across Texas with upper 60s to mid 80s expected. Those across the Texas Panhandle and extreme East Texas will be a tad cooler but it should still be a warm, windy Friday.

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