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6PM Severe Weather Update for Big Country & North Texas

2016-05-11_17-59-53

  • A small complex of severe thunderstorms has developed in the northern Big Country. This cluster has evolved from a large supercell approaching Stamford and Anson from the west. Golfball to baseball size hail and damaging wind gusts over 70 MPH are expected with that cell. Additional storms are now firing up southwest of the ‘big cell’ from Roby to southeast of Snyder. As a whole this mass of storms is moving more southeast now at 20 MPH. The Anson cell will pass north of Abilene but we’ll have to watch for new cells to form on the southern flank.
  • Anvil debris (clouds blowing off the top of the Anson storm) are spreading east across Texoma. No rain falling from these clouds but don’t be surprised if it gets cloudy in western North Texas over the next hour.
  • So far no thunderstorms  have developed in western North Texas although there are indications on the 1-minute satellite data that may be about to change. Assuming we see isolated storms develop over the next two hours in western North Texas they would move east/northeast. The storms could be strong to severe – although likely not on the caliber of what we saw last night. Hial up to the size of golfballs and localized downburst winds over 65 MPH would be the primary threat. Can’t rule out a storm in D/FW this evening but the risk is low.
  • The main thunderstorm event for most of Northwest Texas and North Texas will be after midnight. Increasing moisture advection to the north along with lift in the atmosphere will promote the development of elevated thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be severe with large hail and localized damaging winds. Otherwise the storms will produce pockets of heavy rain and frequent cloud to ground lightning. We’ll look at this aspect of the forecast a bit later after dinner.
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David Reimer

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