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(9/6 Forecast) Heavy Rains through Wednesday in Western Texas

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We’re forecasting rain chances in two regions of Texas today. The first will be in East Texas, Southeast Texas, into the Middle Texas Coast. This activity will be isolated to widely scattered this afternoon. We’ll see an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity after noon as temperatures warm into the 90s. The best chance for a brief downpour will be in the middle to late afternoon before coverage decreases after 6 PM. Locally heavy rain and brief, gusty winds will be possible with this afternoon’s popcorn storms. Here’s a simulated radar loop from the HRRR weather model.

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hrrr_2016090609_ref_texas

The second region we’re looking at for rain chances today will be in the Borderland, Far West Texas, into the Permian Basin, South Plains, Rolling Plains, and western two-thirds of the Texas Panhandle. Moisture from Hurricane Newton combined with the usual monsoonal flow will promote scattered to numerous thunderstorms today and tonight. Hurricane Newton made landfall this morning in Baja California. Moisture from Newton is flowing northeast into Arizona, New Mexico, and western sections of Texas. This enhanced area of moisture will promote heavier rain rates with activity through tomorrow. Storms will likely impact the Texas Panhandle and West Texas this afternoon into the overnight hours tonight.

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The National Weather Service in El Paso has placed the Borderland in a Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning. Pecos, Alpine, Marfa, Van Horn, and El Paso are a few cities included in this watch. A few locations could pick up two to two and a half inches of rain through tonight. Widespread flash flooding isn’t especially likely but we’ll be on the lookout for localized flooding problems. It doesn’t take much rain to cause flooding in the desert. The risk for severe weather is low.

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High temperatures will top out in the upper 70s to upper 80s where rain chances are highest today in western sections of Texas. Otherwise the rest of the state will ‘enjoy’ temperatures peaking in the middle 90s this afternoon. Dewpoint values in the 70s will keep humidity levels uncomfortable high. Heat index values could top 100 degrees in some spots. A few lucky folks in East Texas, Southeast Texas, and the Middle Texas Coast could drop off into the 80s for a few hours this afternoon if a passing shower approaches.

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Much of the same weather can be expected on Wednesday, although rain chances do increase across western sections of Northwest Texas and more of the Texas Panhandle. High temperatures will be seasonably hot.

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David Reimer

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