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Discussion – 

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Active Weather Pattern Begins Tomorrow!

Today’s cold front has oozed south into north central Texas, western north Texas and into much of the panhandle/rolling plains region with a fairly sharp temperature contrast between areas ahead of the front and behind the front.  It’s expected to ooze a bit further south overnight, but will not be strong enough to get anywhere close to coastal or south Texas.  Sorry folks!  The big weather news with our active pattern over the next several days will be the chances for wintry precip across the panhandle and parts of far western north Texas up near the Red River, and chances for decent rainfall over the weekend and into next week as well.   But before we discuss the wintry precip and rainfall outlook, let’s take a look at the temperature and rainfall forecast for tonight and for Friday.

Unfortunately, this front does not possess sufficient gusto to make it much further south than it’s current location…maybe another 50 miles at best, but it is a pretty dense and cold airmass which will create a sharp temperature gradient ahead of and behind the front overnight and through tomorrow.  Drizzle and light rain will be possible overnight across much of south central Texas mainly along and west of the I-35 corridor. These showers will continue to build north throughout the overnight hours into early tomorrow morning across north central and western north Texas. Nothing terribly heavy, but enough to wet the roadways and probably mess up traffic for the Friday morning commute.  The graphic below displays simulated radar through 11am Friday morning.

Simulated Radar through 11am Friday

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Now for the discussion on wintry weather.  It looks like for areas in Texas, impacts from icing will not be nearly as significant as parts of Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri will see between tomorrow and Sunday. For the panhandle region, best chances of seeing hazardous accumulations of ice will be from Amarillo northward into the Oklahoma panhandle region.  This will fall primarily as several rounds of freezing rain beginning tomorrow and finally coming to an end sometime on Sunday.  Areas between Amarillo and Lubbock will see glazing with accumulation up to 1/4 inch.  For areas north of Amarillo, accumulations of freezing rain are likely between 1/4 and just under 1/2 inch.  Parts of the eastern Oklahoma panhandle could see accumulations in excess of 1/2 inch.  Across far western north Texas, only light icing is expected…generally under 1/4 inch.  Although these totals sound pretty light, anytime we have glazing on the roadways from freezing rain, we can expect there to be at least some significant impacts to travel, especially on bridges and overpasses. Power outages and at least some damage to tree limbs is possible…although not nearly as significant as locations off to our north which will see crippling ice accumulations of an inch or more by Sunday.  ***Traveling north this weekend through parts of Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri is highly discouraged with an almost certain probability of becoming stranded, so plan accordingly!***  The cold front will begin to lift back to the north on Sunday which will generate a switch from freezing rain mostly rain for our state by some time Sunday afternoon.  And as if ice and rainfall were not enough, severe weather chances ramp up on Sunday. We’ll have more details on that in a different blog, so be sure to check back!

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Jenny Brown

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