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Interesting Weather Starting Friday through Monday

A few showers will be possible through the afternoon hours, but most precipitation chances will hold off until later tonight into Thursday. We will have the chance of light rain across Central Texas, the Big Country, into North Texas, Texoma, and Northeast Texas tonight. Precipitation amounts will remain light through the afternoon hours tomorrow. A couple spots may pick up a quarter of an inch of precipitation through Friday afternoon. Precipitation chances will increase Friday night as warm air advection increases and our first storm system ramps up. The highest chance for precipitation will be in the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, the Permian Basin, Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, into North Texas, Texoma, and Northeast Texas. On Saturday we’ll see widespread precipitation in the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Northwest Texas, Big Country, and the Concho Valley. Our second storm system will arrive Sunday into Monday with additional precipitation, although this round will likely be in the form of heavier rain and thunderstorms across the eastern two-thirds of Texas.

A winter storm watch is in effect along and northeast of a Gruver-Pampa-Shamrock line in the Texas Panhandle for Friday morning through Sunday. The northeastern Texas Panhandle has the highest probability of receiving at least a quarter of an inch of freezing rain (ice) in that time period. Winter weather precipitation will be possible across other sections of the Texas Panhandle on Friday, but confidence in more than nuisance accumulations is low. Our second storm system on Sunday may bring an additional round of winter precipitation to parts of the Panhandle, but let’s get through this first system first before we try and get specific on the second one.

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There is the potential for a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday Night. At the moment the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted this risk in West-Central Texas, east into Texoma, the Big Country, Concho Valley, into North-Central Texas. As our second storm system arrives it appears more probable that a line of thunderstorms will move from west to east. This squall line may produce some gusty winds, but the overall risk for severe weather at the moment seems to be on the marginal side. If projected instability values increase so would the potential for damaging straight-line wind gusts and a couple of brief tornadoes. Check back for updates to this forecast as we get closer to Sunday.

Rainfall amounts will be on the lower end of the spectrum with our first storm system. Overall the highest liquid-equivalent totals will be highest across the Texas Panhandle where around an inch of liquid-equivalent will be possible. Lower amounts up to one half inch will be possible into West-Central Texas east into the Big Country and Texoma. Up to a quarter of an inch of rain may fall in spots in the Concho Valley south into the Hill Country. Some of this precipitation will likely fall as freezing rain in the Texas Panhandle, which could be problematic since it doesn’t take much freezing rain (ice) to cause problems.

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Our second storm system will arrive on Sunday into Sunday Night. This system will have more moisture and energy to work with. As such we’ll see more widespread rain with some amounts up to two inches possible. Compared to previous forecasts the potential for very heavy rains have decreased a bit, but we’ll have to watch for small-scale features that could locally enhance rainfall amounts. We’ll have a better idea once we get into Friday and Saturday. Some of this precipitation may fall as snow in the Texas Panhandle. That aspect of the forecast will be refined once we’re through with the first system.

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David Reimer

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